Government raises crop outlook as Brazil nears grain output record
Brazil’s CONAB raised the 2025/26 grain harvest forecast to a record 358.6 million tonnes, driven by larger planting areas and favourable weather. Soybean output may hit 180.3 million tonnes, while wheat production is projected to fall 20% to 6.3 million tonnes due to reduced acreage.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) has raised its forecast for the country’s 2025/26 grain harvest. According to a report released on Thursday (11), total production is now expected to reach 358.6 million tonnes, an increase of 600,000 tonnes from the previous estimate. Compared with the prior crop year, the projected harvest is 1.8% larger.
CONAB said the result is being driven by an expansion in planted area, estimated at 83.5 million hectares, combined with favorable weather conditions that are expected to support strong average yields nationwide.
“In this survey, the 2025/26 crop continues to confirm solid performance despite lower second-crop corn yields in this estimate. Even so, the outlook remains for the largest grain harvest ever recorded in CONAB’s historical series,” said Fabiano Vasconcellos, CONAB’s crop monitoring manager.
Soybeans, Brazil’s leading agricultural crop, also posted a higher estimate compared with the previous survey. With harvesting virtually complete, production is now projected at 180.3 million tonnes, up from 180.1 million tonnes in the prior report. The figure is 5.1% higher than last season’s output and would also set a new record.
According to CONAB, the increase reflects a larger area devoted to soybeans, combined with the use of advanced production technologies and favorable weather conditions.
“Despite some irregular rainfall at the beginning of planting, crop development was considered satisfactory across most states,” Vasconcellos said.
Corn, the main second-crop commodity in Brazil, is expected to total 140.5 million tonnes across all three annual harvests. That would represent a 0.5% decline from the previous cycle. Harvesting of the second corn crop is still in its early stages.
For cotton, lint production is estimated at around 4 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the 2024/25 season due to a reduction in planted area.
Rice harvesting is virtually complete, with production estimated at 11.1 million tonnes, 13.2% below the previous season’s volume. The decline reflects a smaller planted area as a result of market conditions for the grain, although yields were considered satisfactory.
Despite the decline in the harvest, the rice export outlook remained positive. According to Datamar data, containerized exports of the product reached 3,694 TEUs, up 53% from the same period a year earlier. The chart below provides a monthly overview of Brazilian rice exports:
For beans, CONAB expects total production across all three annual crops to come in close to 3 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous season.
According to Vasconcellos, production of both rice and beans will be sufficient to meet domestic demand and still allow for some export volumes.
Winter crop
For wheat, the main winter crop, CONAB projects a 20% decline in national production, with output expected to reach 6.3 million tonnes. Planting of the 2026 wheat crop has already reached 45.3% of the planned area nationwide.
According to Vasconcellos, the forecast reflects reduced planting area, particularly in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, Brazil’s two largest wheat-producing regions. The decline in planting intentions has been influenced by market conditions as well as expectations of an El Niño weather pattern during the second half of the year.
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Source : Datamar News
