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The USDA forecasts a decline in global grain production and stocks

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Posted on July 11, 2026

The USDA’s July report slightly lowered 2026/27 global wheat and corn production and ending stocks while raising export forecasts. U.S. wheat output was reduced, corn exports increased, and Ukraine’s wheat export outlook improved, signalling tighter global grain supplies despite stronger trade expectations.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its estimates for global grain production and ending stocks, but raised its forecast for grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year.

These findings are contained in the agency’s July report, which was published yesterday.

Wheat

According to the USDA’s July forecast, global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 819.97 million metric tons, which is 0.09 million metric tons less than expected in June. Global exports are estimated at 213.05 million metric tons (+1.1 million metric tons), and ending stocks at 272.84 million metric tons (-2.58 million metric tons).

With regard to the United States itself, analysts at the relevant agency also lowered the wheat production forecast to 41.81 million metric tons (compared to 42.01 million metric tons in June). The export forecast remained unchanged at 21.09 million metric tons. The estimate for ending stocks was reduced to 19.66 million metric tons (from 20.25 million metric tons).

USDA analysts did not change their forecast for wheat production in China—141 million metric tons. The country’s imports are estimated at 6 million metric tons, with ending stocks at 120.65 million metric tons (a decrease of 0.20 million metric tons compared to the June figure).

For the Black Sea region, the most significant development is the USDA’s upward revision of its projected wheat harvest to 24 million metric tons (up from 23.5 million metric tons a month earlier). U.S. analysts have also revised their export estimate upward—to 14.5 million metric tons (compared to 14 million metric tons in June). The forecast for ending stocks remains unchanged at 2.53 million metric tons.

Corn

Compared to the June report, the USDA lowered its forecast for global production in July but raised its estimate for corn exports in 2026/27.

According to the latest forecast, global corn production in the upcoming marketing year will total 1,297.09 million metric tons, which is 3.29 million metric tons less than expected in June. Global exports are estimated at 209.88 million metric tons (+2.27 million metric tons), and ending stocks at 275.26 million metric tons (-5.96 million metric tons).

For the United States, the agency raised its corn production forecast to 406.42 million metric tons (up from 406.29 million metric tons in June). The export forecast rose to 81.28 million metric tons (from 80.01 million metric tons). Ending stocks fell to 45.46 million metric tons (compared to 49.78 million metric tons in June).

USDA analysts left their forecast for corn production in China unchanged at 307 million metric tons. The country’s imports are estimated at 6 million metric tons. Ending stocks were reduced to 165.13 million metric tons (from 166.13 million metric tons).

The corn harvest estimate for Ukraine remained unchanged at 30 million metric tons. The USDA also did not revise its export forecast, which stands at 23 million metric tons. However, the agency lowered its forecast for ending stocks to 2.06 million metric tons (from 2.56 million metric tons).