Russia’s Black Sea grain exports nearly grind to a halt
West Bengal expects retail sugar prices to fall to around Rs 50/kg before the festive season after easing from Rs 75 to Rs 60. The government will monitor markets and establish 10 onion storage facilities to strengthen supply.
Russia’s grain exports fell sharply in early September amid disruptions to Black Sea logistics. According to the Russian Grain Union, shipments of grains and pulses totaled 418 thsd tons on September 1–10, compared with 2.4 mln tons a year earlier, a 5.9-fold decline. Wheat exports dropped 6.5-fold to 294 thsd tons, while barley shipments fell 7.3-fold to 43 thsd tons.
The most significant changes occurred in port logistics. While the Azov-Black Sea basin handled most shipments a year ago, Baltic ports became the main export gateways in early September. Ust-Luga handled 176.8 thsd tons and Vysotsk 95 thsd tons, while another 87.5 thsd tons were shipped through Astrakhan, mainly to Iran.
At the same time, shipments through traditional southern ports almost stopped. Novorossiysk, Azov and Taman saw virtually no significant grain exports in the first ten days of September, compared with 905 thsd, 192 thsd and 88 thsd tons respectively a year earlier. Shipments through Rostov-on-Don fell to 5 thsd tons from 309 thsd tons, while Tuapse handled only 7.4 thsd tons compared with 93.5 thsd tons last year.
Logistics problems are already weighing on domestic prices. According to the grain union, producer prices fell to RUB 8.99 thsd/t, or about $104/t, described as the lowest level in a decade. At the same time, Russian wheat in Novorossiysk is quoted much higher at around $212–214/t FOB, highlighting the wide gap between domestic and export prices.
The shift toward Baltic and Caspian routes has so far failed to compensate for the loss of Black Sea capacity. The number of ports handling grain exports fell to nine from 36 a year earlier, while the number of exporters dropped to nine from 44. If problems with southern logistics persist, pressure on Russia’s domestic grain market and purchase prices may remain high.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
