IGC: Grain production falls but GOI prices rise
Global grain production is forecast at 2.42 billion tonnes in 2026-27, down 3% year-on-year despite an upward revision. Trade is expected to fall amid Black Sea disruptions, while rice output may decline 2% and soybean production reach a record 440 million tonnes.
LONDON, ENGLAND — Global production, trade and consumption of total grains (coarse grains and wheat) are forecast to decline in the 2026-27 marketing year compared to the previous year, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) Grain Market Report.
The IGC raised its production forecast from the previous month by 4 million tonnes, to 2.42 billion, but it would still be 3% below the record output of 2.49 million tonnes in 2025-26.
“Outturn in Oceania, Europe and the Americas are expected to be smaller compared to the season before, but bigger harvests will be achieved in North Africa and Near East Asia, likely crimping import demand,” the IGC said in its Sept. 17 report.
Projected wheat and corn production, trade and consumption totals were virtually unchanged month on month but will be below last year’s records, the IGC said.
“Owing to severe disruptions to Black Sea exports, global wheat flows to date are unusually slow, with (2026-27) total grains shipments predicted to slip to 451 million tonnes (from 467 million tonnes last year),” the IGC said.
The Council trimmed its forecast for global soybean production slightly from the previous month, but the projected 440 million tonnes would still be a record, if realized. All-time peaks also are expected for soybean trade (191 million tonnes) and consumption (445 million tonnes).
World rice output is projected to decline 2% year on year to 536 million tonnes, “in large part reflecting a reduced figure for India’s kharif crop,” the IGC said. If realized, it would be the first year-on-year production decline in more than a decade.
However, rice trade is expected to reach a peak of 62 million tonnes in 2026-27.
With bullish market sentiment underpinned by persistent shipping bottlenecks in the Black Sea region, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) rose by 6% since the August report, with net increases across all crops. The GOI is nearly 20% higher than it was in September 2025, with wheat and soybean prices each rising 23% year on year.
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Source : World Grain.Com
