Russian farmers sharply cut winter wheat sowing amid losses and export problems
Russian farmers are reducing winter wheat sowing for 2027 amid low prices, export disruptions and rising input costs. By early September, 2.4 million hectares were planted, about 25% below recent averages, while 26% of surveyed farmers plan to abandon sowing.
Russian farmers are reducing winter wheat sowing for the 2027 harvest amid low domestic prices, grain export disruptions and rising production costs. By early September, around 2.6 mln ha of winter crops had been planted in Russia, including 2.4 mln ha of wheat. According to SovEcon, this is about 25% below the average level of recent years.
A survey of around 1,000 farmers showed that 26% plan to abandon winter wheat sowing entirely this year, while another 32% intend to reduce planted area. Only 29% expect to maintain sowings at last year’s level. Farmers cite a shortage of funds for fuel, seed, fertilizers and other inputs needed for the autumn planting campaign as one of the main reasons.
Producers’ financial position has deteriorated due to weaker exports and the accumulation of grain on the domestic market. According to SovEcon, Russian grain exports in August and September fell to their lowest levels since 2010 and were almost three times below the average for those months. Excess domestic supply has increased pressure on farmgate prices, which in some regions have fallen below production costs.
Disruptions to Black Sea and Azov export infrastructure have added further pressure. Russian grain exports in August reportedly fell by almost 60% y/y to 2.2 mln tons, while September shipments may total around 2 mln tons. Higher fuel prices are also raising the cost of autumn fieldwork and worsening the economics of the 2027 crop.
The Russian Grain Union warns that a shortage of working capital could become one of the main risks for winter sowing and the 2027 harvest. Under a pessimistic scenario from ProZerno, as much as 35 mln tons of grain from the 2026 crop, including around 22 mln tons of wheat, could remain unsold domestically if export problems persist, keeping pressure on the internal market.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
