UK wheat harvest to stay below 12 mln tons for a third consecutive year
UK wheat production for 2026 is estimated at 11.6 million tons, marking the third straight year below 12 million tons due to drought and reduced planting. High input costs and Black Sea disruptions have driven November feed wheat futures up 17%.
UK wheat production in 2026 is estimated at 11.6 mln tons. If realised, this would mark the third consecutive year with output below 12 mln tons and leave production 14% below the 2016–2025 average.
According to UK Flour Millers, the smaller crop reflects reduced planted area and below-average yields following exceptionally dry and hot weather during spring and summer. At the same time, milling wheat quality appears more encouraging, with supplies meeting industry requirements expected to be sufficient.
November UK feed wheat futures have risen by 17% since July, equivalent to an increase of £31.50/t. Prices are also being supported by broader risks to global grain trade and disruptions to Black Sea supplies.
Higher energy, fuel and fertilizer costs are adding further pressure on UK growers. UK Flour Millers warns that if input costs remain elevated, farmers may reduce spending on crop inputs, creating additional risks for yields in 2027.
Milling wheat could be particularly exposed because it generally requires more nitrogen fertilizer than feed wheat. A third consecutive small crop, high production costs and uncertainty in global supplies are therefore keeping the UK wheat market under pressure.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
