Iran and Afghanistan are the only markets where Russian wheat has gained market share
Russia increased its wheat import market share in Iran from 20% to 35% and Afghanistan from 15% to 40%, supported by discounts and Caspian Sea shipments. However, its overall MENA market share fell to 35–40% amid Black Sea disruptions and declining competitiveness in traditional markets.
Iran and Afghanistan have become the only markets in the Middle East and North Africa where Russia has managed to increase its share of wheat imports. In Iran, Russia’s market share rose from 20% to 35%, while in Afghanistan it increased from 15% to 40%. Russian exporters strengthened their positions thanks to price discounts, the absence of sanctions-related payment restrictions, and the availability of the Caspian Sea route for grain shipments.
Meanwhile, Russian wheat has lost significant ground in other traditional export markets. Russia’s share declined from 55% to 30% in Turkey, from 40% to 25% in Egypt, from 35% to 20% in Morocco, from 30% to 15% in Algeria, and from 25% to 10% in Libya. Overall, Russia’s share of wheat imports across the MENA region fell from 60–70% to 35–40%, a decline of 25–30 percentage points. One of the factors behind this decline was attacks on Black Sea ports and commercial vessels, which disrupted export logistics and increased the risks associated with maritime transportation.
Against this backdrop, Iran and Afghanistan remain important alternative destinations for Russian wheat exports. Shipping costs along the Caspian Sea–Iran route are estimated at $25–35/t, with delivery times of 10–14 days. According to the source, the route remains highly reliable, while discounts on Russian wheat fully offset the additional logistics costs. The limited availability of alternative suppliers also helps Russia strengthen its position in these markets.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
