Brazil’s wheat imports may hit 30-year high as harvest shrinks
Brazil’s wheat imports could reach 9 million tonnes in 2026/27, the highest in 30 years, as domestic production falls 27.2% to 5.73 million tonnes. Adverse weather, reduced planting and grain quality concerns are driving import demand, potentially raising flour prices and creating logistical challenges at Brazilian ports.
Brazil is expected to import 9 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 crop year, the highest volume in 30 years, according to the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo). A decline in domestic production and quality problems with the grain are expected to increase the need for imports. Last year, Brazilian mills purchased 6.89 million tonnes of wheat from abroad.
“We saw a significant drop in domestic wheat production in the last crop year. This decline resulted from a combination of adverse factors, particularly climate challenges affecting the main producing states in the South, as well as the resulting losses in grain yields and quality in several regions,” Abitrigo President Rubens Barbosa said during the International Wheat Industry Congress in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazilian wheat production is estimated at 5.73 million tonnes, down 27.2% from the previous season, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). Domestic consumption is estimated at 12 million tonnes.
According to Barbosa, tighter domestic supplies are expected to increase wheat imports. In this scenario, prices for flour and products made from it, such as bread and pasta, could come under pressure. Imported wheat currently trades at an average of $245 per tonne, up from $230 a year ago.
Daniel Kümmel, chairman of Abitrigo’s board, said wheat imports could exceed the forecast 9 million tonnes, depending on the quality of the grain available. He said rainfall in producing regions has made it difficult to obtain wheat that meets the standards required for flour production.
“The wheat will be there, but it will not be suitable for baking or industrial processing. So we will have to import more wheat to ensure that mills can meet end consumers’ needs,” Kümmel said at the event.
Also speaking at the congress, Agriculture Ministry Secretary for Agricultural Policy Guilherme Campos attributed the decline in wheat production to weather conditions and a reduction in planted area. He acknowledged that rural insurance has failed to meet farmers’ needs and said the government is working to change that.
He also cited high interest rates as a source of pressure on the agricultural sector. “There is no legitimate sector of the economy that can operate with such high interest rates for such a long period,” he said.
The quality of Argentine wheat is also a concern. Argentina is Brazil’s main supplier of the grain and experienced quality problems in the previous crop year. According to Kümmel, the deterioration in quality was partly due to high yields in some areas.
Abitrigo expects the quality of Argentine wheat to improve, but the outcome will depend on the harvest. In addition to Argentina, Brazil sources wheat from countries including Paraguay, Russia, the United States, and Canada. Kümmel said the main concern, therefore, is not the availability of wheat on the international market, but its quality and the need to blend different varieties to meet the industry’s requirements.
The need to import a record volume is also expected to put pressure on logistics. Kümmel said Brazilian mills have extensive experience importing wheat, but the projected volume poses an operational challenge. “Brazilian ports have a long-established and efficient import infrastructure. We know how to import. The issue is the volume you will be bringing in,” he said.
According to Kümmel, higher import volumes could lead to more vessels waiting for berths, longer port queues and the risk of additional demurrage costs—charges imposed when vessels remain in port beyond the agreed time.
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Source : valorinternational
