Brazil’s wheat production could fall to 5.12 mln tons, increasing import dependence
Brazil’s wheat production is forecast at 5.12 million tonnes in 2026, covering only 36% of domestic consumption and potentially driving imports to 9.5–10 million tonnes in 2027. Poor weather, declining grain quality and regional supply deficits are increasing reliance on Argentine wheat and pressuring logistics infrastructure.
Brazil’s wheat production could decline to 5.12 mln tons in 2026, down 37% from the reference level used in the industry assessment. This volume would cover only around 36% of the country’s domestic consumption, increasing its need for imported grain. The estimates were presented at the 33rd International Wheat Industry Congress in Rio de Janeiro.
Amid declining domestic supplies, Brazil could increase wheat imports to 9.5–10 mln tons in 2027. The forecast was presented by Tito Marquetti Martinho, Senior Director of Wheat Origination and Trading at Bunge Alimentos. According to him, lower production and potential grain quality problems will increase the country’s dependence on foreign suppliers and place additional pressure on port infrastructure. Argentina is expected to remain Brazil’s main wheat supplier.
Market participants are particularly concerned about the limited availability of high-quality milling wheat. According to industry experts, only 70–80 thsd tons of wheat in São Paulo state may meet Grade 1 quality standards, compared with around 500–600 thsd tons in Paraná. In Paraná, where approximately 70% of the harvest had been completed at the time of the assessment, the wheat balance forecast shifted from a surplus of 100 thsd tons to a deficit of 1.85 mln tons. This could increase local flour mills’ demand for imported wheat.
The situation is also challenging in Rio Grande do Sul, where unfavorable weather conditions and reduced investment in wheat cultivation have affected the 2026 harvest. Between July and October, the state experienced excessive rainfall, high humidity, limited sunshine and frost. Wheat production in the state is estimated at 1.85 mln tons, with an average yield of around 2.5 t/ha. At the time of the congress, farmers had harvested 27% of the planted area, while sales accounted for approximately 30% of the expected crop.
Declining domestic supplies and deteriorating grain quality are increasing the importance of logistics for Brazil’s flour milling industry. According to wheat market specialist Elcio Bento, mills with favorable locations and infrastructure capable of handling imported wheat will gain competitive advantages. Meanwhile, processing domestic wheat batches with varying quality characteristics will require greater operational efficiency. As a result, rising imports could lead to a redistribution of grain flows between regions and place additional pressure on the country’s logistics infrastructure.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
