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Africa sees growing wheat demand

Sub-Saharan Africa’s wheat imports rose 7% in 2024–25, defying a global decline. The USDA reports the region bought 30 million tonnes, up from 22 million a decade ago, driven by population and economic growth. Nigeria leads, importing 6.4 million tonnes. Canada is expanding market share through quality promotion and partnerships, with rising interest in hard and durum wheat for baking and pasta.

SASKATOON — Global wheat trade contracted by 10 per cent in 2024-25, but there is one region of the world where it continued to climb.

Imports declined for China, Turkey, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, but expanded by seven per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa, said a new report by the United States Department of Agriculture.

“The region has growing consumption with limited production and took advantage of relatively affordable food grain prices, with strong imports from Nigeria, Kenya, Sudan, South Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania,” stated the USDA.

The region purchased 30 million tonnes of the cereal crop that year and is expected to buy the same amount in 2025-26. That is up from about 22 million tonnes 10 years ago.

Increased demand has been driven by population and economic growth in the region.

The European Union and Russia are the primary suppliers of wheat to Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for about 70 percent of total imports. But Canada and the U.S. are also players in the region.

“While the markets are largely price sensitive, there is emerging consumer preference for high quality wheat,” saidthe report.

Lisa Nemeth, director of market support and training with Cereals Canada, said Sub-Saharan Africa is an important target market.

A bar graph showing rising wheat imports for countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 2016 to 2026.
Source: USDA

“It may seem like the Canadian portion is small, but there’s a lot going in there right now and there’s a lot of potential, so it is definitely something we’re keeping an eye on,” she said.

Nigeria is a good case in point. Canada identified strong potential in that market back in 2011 when barely any Canadian wheat was moving to the country.

Through sustained interaction and relationship building Canada has been able to demonstrate the quality of its wheat to mills operating in that country.

During the last five years Canada has shipped an average of 800,000 tonnes of wheat and durum to Nigeria annually. Mills are using it to blend with low protein wheat.

“Market development was successful for sure in Nigeria,” said Nemeth.

The USDA reports that Nigeria is the biggest buyer in the region and is forecast to become the 11th largest global importer of wheat in 2025-26 at 6.4 million tonnes.

“Nigeria has a robust milling industry that blends lower priced wheat from the EU and Black Sea regions with higher quality wheat from Canada and the United States,” stated the USDA report.

“This flour is used to satisfy growing consumer demand for bread, cakes and biscuits.”

Nemeth said Ghana is the second biggest buyer of Canadian wheat in the region. One mill in that country that has been importing CWRS wheat wants to learn more about CWAD as it delves into pasta production.

Cereals Canada has been working with multi-national mills in Ghana, which are helping introduce Canadian wheat into other smaller African countries like Mozambique, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

It has also forged a “great relationship” with the African Milling School in Kenya where technical staff from Cereals Canada bring in millers from the region to learn about the quality benefits of Canadian wheat.

“It has been a really successful way to do programming,” she said.

In July, Cereals Canada is bringing seven African milling companies to Winnipeg where they will learn about Canadian wheat and then embark on a tour of a Canadian farm, primary elevator and a port facility in Hamilton.

Nemeth said that due to the great distance between Canada and Africa, Cereals Canada is relying more on technology tools like webinars, customer newsletters and new crop presentations to help keep African customers informed about what is happening in Canada.

“WhatsApp has become a huge tool for us as well,” she said.

The USDA report said Kenya is the second largest wheat importer in Sub-Saharan Africa behind Nigeria. It is forecast to purchase 2.6 million tonnes of the crop in 2025-26.

Consumption is on the rise in that country due to growing disposable income for the younger population and a shift towards a more western diet.

Sudan is also forecast to import 2.6 million tonnes of wheat and flour despite ongoing conflict.

The country has a milling industry that has historically processed over 2.5 million tonnes of wheat annually, but there has been a dramatic decline in milling due to the war. As a result, the country is importing less grain and more flour.

Corn is the primary staple in South Africa, but wheat consumption is rising. The country is forecast to import two million tonnes in 2025-26, some of which will be milled into flour that is then exported into the interior of the continent.

Ethiopia is forecast to import 1.4 million tonnes to meet rising domestic demand due to the country’s expanding urban population.

“The milling sector often prefers hard wheat and durum wheat to satisfy consumer preferences for breads and pastas,” stated the report.

Tanzania’s imports have been rising over the past decade due to strong population growth and an improving economy.

It is expected to import 1.3 million tonnes in 2025-26 to meet “booming” consumer demand for wheat-based products and from the country’s expanding hotel and tourism industry. It primarily imports milling wheat from Russia, according to the USDA report.

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Source : The Western Producer

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