AHDB: Wheat prices may strengthen later in the year
A significant contraction in the area of crop planted in the United States (US) this year could lead to a strengthening in wheat prices over the coming months.
According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), the scale of the US planting area can have a direct impact on international grain prices.
According to this week’s United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prospective plantings report, total wheat plantings for 2025 are estimated at 18.4 million hectares (Mha), down 2% from 2024.
If realised, this would be the second lowest total wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
Wheat
The 2025 winter wheat area is estimated at 13.5 Mha, down 2% from the previous estimate and down less than 1% from last year.
However, of greater significance in the USDA projection is that the area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 4.05 Mha, down 6% from the 2024 estimate.
On the other hand, the area planted with maize in 2025 is estimated at 38.6 Mha, an increase of 5% compared to last year.
The increase in maize area is mainly due to a 4% decrease in the soya bean area compared to last year.
In essence, the soya bean to maize price ratio has encouraged growers to plant more maize.
However, not only has the ratio encouraged more maize planting in the US, but there may also be a risk of trade uncertainty due to tariff tensions.
The share of US maize production that is exported is more than three times lower than for soya beans.
Price
AHDB analysts believe the decline in US wheat acreage is a supportive factor for wheat. But attention must also be paid to crop conditions and the weather forecast in the US.
The first USDA crop progress report of the spring will also be released over the coming days. This will provide an insight into the progress made by US crops over recent weeks.
This follows some challenging conditions with a particular focus on winter wheat.
Moreover, the US has seen a trend of rising wheat yields over the past 10 years, so the decline in area may not have a significant impact on final wheat production.
Meanwhile, winter cereal crops that were planted across most of northern and western Europe are reported to be in excellent condition.
Establishment rates have been exceptional with early spring growth reported to be equally promising.
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Source : Agriland
