Assessing sugar export in 2025-26 SS: How much sugar should India export?
India is expected to have a sugar surplus in 2025-26 even after domestic use and ethanol diversion. Industry leaders suggest exporting 1.5–2 MMT (around 20 lakh tons) to stabilize prices. Experts stress prioritizing ethanol production, exporting in tranches, and promoting molasses exports to manage over-supply and support mill profitability.
In an exclusive interview with ChiniMandi, the Director General of Indian Sugar Mills and BioEnergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said that the country will have surplus sugar, even after meeting all domestic requirements and after ethanol diversion, in the new season of 2025-26. Giving the numbers, he said that with gross production of sugar at 349 lakh tons, the country will have a surplus of around 120 lakh tons (55 + 349 – 284) after domestic consumption. Even after diverting 50 lakh tons for ethanol, there will be a net sugar production of 299 lac tons, and about 70 lakh tons will remain as carryover stock.
| Particulars | 2024-25 Quantity (Lakh Tons) |
|---|---|
| Opening Balance | 80 |
| Net Sugar | 261 |
| Total Availability | 341 |
| Domestic Sales | 278 |
| Exports | 8 |
| Closing Balance | 55 |
Source: ISMA
Hence, as per the balance sheet shown above, Ballani said that there is enough room for sugar exports of 20 lakh tons in the ensuing season of 2025-26, subject to international market conditions and government policy.
Considering that there is an expectation of a bumper crop in the new season, ChiniMandi spoke with industry leaders and experts about their expectations on the volume of sugar that should be exported, ensuring sufficient domestic availability and the financial stability of the mills.
2025-26: Sugar export?
Prakash Naiknavre, Managing Director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), said that about 20 lakh tons of sugar could be exported in the coming season.
The figure of 20 lakh tons as sugar export quota finds favour with Mohan Narang, Director at KS Commodities. He added that there are three reasons for allowing sugar exports, “Firstly, we have surplus sugar in season 2025-26, secondly, there is a limitation in diversion to ethanol, and thirdly, there is a demand destruction. So, assuming that the Government has to allow 20 lakh tons of sugar for exports, then this should be allowed in 3 or 4 instalments with a gap of one to two months. And this should be allowed from the mills that can export their own sugar, thus ensuring quality, packing and markings”.
The Government permitted sugar mills to export 10 lakh tons of sugar this season, of which approximately 8 lakh tons have already been shipped. Atul Chaturvedi, Executive Chairman of Shree Renuka Sugars, highlighted that the balance of 2 lakh tons still remains to be exported.
“It would be a little premature to talk about exports when last year’s sugar export quota has not been exhausted and the new crop has still not been made. Let the crop estimates become a reality for any meaningful suggestion. We can talk about exports in February after seeing crushing progress”.
An industry expert had a slightly different take on the matter. He said, “Before finalising any export roadmap, it is essential to prioritise maximum diversion of sugar towards ethanol production. With the current distillation capacities and healthy sugarcane sowing reports, India can comfortably divert around 4.5 million MT of sugar, translating into approximately 500 crore litres of ethanol”.
Regarding the issue of stagnant ethanol prices, he said that it is important that the Government incentivises diversion of surplus sugar to ethanol through better prices.
“The ethanol prices have remained stagnant for the last 3 years despite a 10-12% increase in sugarcane FRP. This is weighing on the sugar mills now”, he added.
He feels that once this assured diversion for ethanol is accounted for, the balance surplus sugar becomes clear. “Based on current estimates, the remaining sugar surplus is in the range of 1.5–2 million MT, which can then be safely allowed for exports without jeopardising the domestic sugar–ethanol balance”.
Jatin Kothari, Sr. Executive Officer at The Ugar Sugar Works Ltd endorsed the total export quantity. He feels that there will be room to export at least 1.5 to 2 MMT during crushing season 2025-26 , and considering the current production trend in Brazil and the global Sugar and Demand dynamics, the ideal window for us to export from January to April/Mid May (maximum) should be 1-1.5 MMT.
Kothari said that the idea behind the sugar export programme is to avoid over-supply in the domestic market and stabilise prices. He made an additional point for the export of Molasses. “The Government has to give priority to the export of Molasses as well by reducing the export duty”.
Explaining the reason behind this, Kothari said that “As you are aware, India has limited windows to export. Thus, practically export/dispatches of sugar may be limited (up to 1 MMT). The result of that (leftover export quantity) will come on the domestic market, and post-production period, the carrying cost will increase. Hence, priority should be given to the achievable number and reduce the over-supply of sugar in the domestic market by way of export of sugar and for better realisation of its derivatives i.e. molasses. Both programmes should run simultaneously. However, the Government can give export quota in tranches also with proper monitoring of the situation”.
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Source : Chinimandi
