August WASDE maintains forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol, reduces outlook for corn prices
The USDA’s August 12 report forecasts a larger 2024-’25 corn supply, with increased production and reduced prices. Corn production is expected to reach 15.1 billion bushels, driven by a record yield of 183.1 bushels per acre, despite a 700,000-acre decrease in harvested area. Corn use for ethanol remains steady at 5.45 billion bushels. Ending stocks are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels, with lower prices and a projected average price of $4.20 per bushel. Global corn trade sees increased U.S. exports but reductions for other major producers, impacting ending stocks worldwide.
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol production in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 12. The agency increased its forecast for corn production and revised down its outlook for corn prices.
The current 2024-’25 outlook for corn is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports and smaller ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-’25 are 10 million bushels lower based on slightly higher use forecast for 2023-’24. For 2023-’24, higher corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch.
Corn production for 2024-’25 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from the July WASDE as a 700,000 acre decline in harvested area is more than offset by an increase in yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 183.1 bushels per acre, is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024-’25 is forecast 60 million bushels higher to 15 billion. Corn use for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2023-’24.
The USDA maintained its prediction that 5.45 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2024-’25. The agency currently estimates that 5.45 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production for 2023-’24, up from 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23.
Exports for 2024-’25 are raised 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supplies rising less than use, ending stocks are down 24 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.20 per bushel.
Foreign corn production is down based on cuts to the European Union, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova. For the EU, Serbia, and Russia, extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of Russia during the month of July reduce yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is reduced as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield expectations. Yield is forecast lower based on heat and dryness in key corn regions during July. Area is increased reflecting greater estimated area for 2023-‘24 based on reported marketing year use to date.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024-‘25 include higher corn exports for the U.S. but reductions for the EU, Serbia, Ukraine, Russia, and India. Corn imports are raised for India and Zimbabwe but lowered for Iran, Chile, Egypt, Nepal, and Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, reflecting declines for the EU, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Serbia that are partly offset by increases for Mexico and India. Global corn stocks, at 310.2 million tons, are down 1.5 million.
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