Brazil likely to cut corn exports to Iran amid conflict uncertainty
Brazil may reduce corn exports to Iran as geopolitical tensions and economic challenges weaken demand. Iran, which bought about 9 million tons of Brazilian corn last year, could cut imports due to currency weakness and declining consumption. Analysts say replacing this large demand will be difficult for Brazil’s corn export market.
Brazil is expected to reduce corn exports to Iran as uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the country grows, analysts say. Last year Iran was the largest destination for Brazilian corn, purchasing about 9 million metric tons — roughly 23% of Brazil’s total exports of the grain.
The following is a breakdown of corn exports to Iran between January 2022 and December 2025. The data is provided by Datamar:
Roberto Carlos Rafael, partner at Germinar Agronegócios, said Brazil could also lose market share to the United States, which is both a major corn producer and exporter.
In addition to possible competition from U.S. supplies, Rafael said the current economic situation in Iran could also reduce demand.
“Consumption of goat and sheep meat has declined in recent years in Iran, leading the country to increase poultry production, which in turn boosted corn imports. Now those purchases may fall because of the crisis Iran is likely to face in the coming months. The local currency is weakening, which will make imports much more expensive,” he said.
A commodities trader interviewed by Valor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said part of the demand gap left by Iran could be filled by China, which has previously been Brazil’s largest corn importer.
“China could buy large volumes from Brazil, but everything will depend on price, since it has increasingly strong domestic production and also sources from other suppliers,” the trader said.
He added that some of the corn no longer exported to Iran could remain in Brazil’s domestic market to supply the rapidly growing corn-based ethanol industry.
Ronaldo Fernandes, an analyst at Royal Rural, said replacing Iran’s purchase volumes would be difficult.
“Iran was the lifeline of our exports in 2025. Without them we would not have reached 40 million tons shipped, a volume well above the historical average, which usually ranges between 4 million and 6 million tons,” he said.
In contrast to other analysts, Fernandes said China is unlikely to play a major role in Brazilian corn exports in the near term.
“China bought a lot of Brazilian corn in 2023/24 — about 16 million tons — but that was part of a cyclical movement. It replenished its stocks after poor harvests in previous years and may now go three years without major purchases, likely importing no more than 2 million tons this year,” he said.
Enilson Nogueira, an analyst at Céleres Consultoria, said replacing Iranian demand would not be straightforward.
“We do not see another buyer with the same absorption capacity in the short term. If exports to Iran decline, it will be a significant concern for the entire corn supply chain,” he said in a note.
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Source : Datamar News
