Brazil’s ethanol production could reach 21-year record high
Argus Media forecasts record ethanol output of 36.9 billion litres in Brazil’s Centre-South for 2026/27, the highest in 21 years. Higher cane diversion and rising corn ethanol—seen at 11 billion litres—will boost supply, potentially pressuring domestic biofuel prices from April 2026.
According to Argus international analysts, in the new 2026/27 season in the central-southern region of Brazil, ethanol production is estimated at 36.9 billion liters, which is the highest figure in 21 years. This volume exceeds the forecast level of 33.6 billion liters in the current season.
The increase in production is due to improved weather conditions, a decrease in the use of sugarcane for sugar production and the expansion of corn-based ethanol production.
In the 2026/27 season in the central-southern region of Brazil, corn-based ethanol production could be 11 billion liters, which is 16% more than the volume forecast in the 2025/26 season.
In the 2026/27 season in the central-southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane harvest season will officially begin in April 2026. It is expected that in the first half of the season, an increase in ethanol supply will lead to a decrease in biofuel prices on the local market.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
