Canada’s total wheat production nears 40 mln tons
Canada’s 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at a record 39.96 million tonnes on improved yields, up 11% y/y. Higher spring, durum and winter wheat output boosts exports to 29.5 million tonnes, while domestic use rises modestly to 9.35 million tonnes.
Improved yields are expected to push Canada’s wheat production, including durum, to a record 39.96 million tonnes in the MY 2025/26, up 11% year-on-year and 23% above the five-year average. If realized, this crop would surpass the previous record of 37.59 million tonnes set in 2013/14 by 6%, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The year-on-year increase is mainly due to higher yields for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat, followed by Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) and winter wheat. Overall wheat yields rose from 3.37 to 3.75 tonnes per hectare, while planted area increased by 1% to 10.66 million hectares.
Spring wheat production rose 10.3% to 29.3 million tonnes on higher yields of 3.95 t/ha, offsetting a 2.1% reduction in harvested area. Durum wheat output increased 11.8% to 7.1 million tonnes, supported by improved yields and better harvest rates, with yields rising to 2.75 t/ha from 2.49 t/ha in 2024. Winter wheat production climbed 17% to 3.6 million tonnes, driven by larger harvested area despite slightly lower yields of 5.75 t/ha compared with 5.84 t/ha the previous year.
Following a 3.3 million tonne upward revision in production estimates, FAS raised its export forecast to 29.5 million tonnes, equivalent to 67% of domestic supply. In comparison, Canada exported 29.3 million tonnes of wheat in the previous marketing year and 25.4 million tonnes in 2023/24. Over the past five years, Canada has consistently exported 53–71% of its total wheat output, highlighting the country’s strong export orientation.
Domestic consumption for 2025/26 is projected at 9.35 million tonnes, or 21% of total supplies, up from 8.4 million tonnes in 2024/25 and in line with the three-year average. This reflects stable domestic demand amid record production and robust exports.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
