Cash corn at $5.38 per bushel in Brazil
The upcoming weeks are crucial for Brazil’s second corn crop (safrinha). While early forecasts indicated adequate rainfall, recent analyses suggest potential dryness in central Brazil during May and June, which could stress the crop during critical growth phases. The weakening of La Niña conditions and a shift to ENSO-neutral patterns may contribute to these drier conditions. Farmers should monitor weather developments closely, as reduced rainfall and higher temperatures could impact pollination and grain fill, potentially lowering yields.
The next five weeks will be critical in determining Brazil’s corn crop. As of now, we don’t see any significant weather threats to the second crop of corn while the entire Center West region, as well as Parana in the south all see four to six inches of rain in the next two weeks. Parts of the eastern edge of the growing region may lack precipitation but these regions are minor in size and scope of production.
Brazil will still need to see solid rainfall throughout the month of April. May showers would be nice, especially for corn planted in March, but rainfall in May is much less reliable as the rainy season comes to an end. Rainfall comes back to Rio Grande do Sul in April. While it may help some of the later planted crops, much damage in that state has already been done, which is why you’re seeing private forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop drop as they take into consideration lower yields in Rio Grande do Sul.
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Source : Farm Week Now
