Confusion persists over sugar production estimates
India’s sugar production for 2024-25 is uncertain, with estimates ranging from 265-270 lakh tonnes. As of February-end, output stood at 220 lakh tonnes, but mill closures and declining recovery rates may hinder further production. Achieving 250 lakh tonnes appears difficult, and even with additional crushing in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, total production may remain below 260 lakh tonnes.
iGrain India – The sugar production estimates in India for the 2024-25 season remain uncertain as various industry bodies and trade organizations revise their earlier projections.
Currently, the consensus range for sugar production stands at 265-270 lakh tonnes. However, experts and analysts are contemplating the possibility that the actual production could fall short of these expectations.
As of the end of February 2025, the country had produced 220 lakh tonnes of sugar, with production slowing down due to the closure of 177 mills.
Notably, about 55 lakh tonnes of sugar were produced in February alone, which indicates a significant production boost, but this was achieved while one-third of the mills had already ceased operations.
Currently, mills still in operation face challenges in securing enough sugarcane to maintain production levels, which could result in further mill closures during March.
To meet the revised estimate of 250 lakh tonnes, an additional 30 lakh tonnes of sugar needs to be produced. However, with decreasing sugar recovery rates from sugarcane and the closure of mills, achieving this target appears difficult.
Some states, such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu (NSE:TNNP), have additional crushing periods in July-August, during which they produce about 4-5 lakh tonnes of sugar.
Even with these extra contributions, the total sugar production for the season is unlikely to reach 260 lakh tonnes.
The overall sugar production situation in India will likely become clearer by mid-March, when more precise figures and trends are expected to emerge .
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Source : Investing.com
