Contrary Opinion Trade Works for Wheat on Friday
“Wheat futures showed gains on Friday, with Chicago wheat up 5 to 8 cents, Kansas City contracts rising 5 ¼ to 7 ¾ cents, and MPLS spring wheat increasing 8 ¾ to 9 ¼ cents. USDA’s Export Sales report indicates US wheat export commitments at 7.76 MMT, 35% of the annual forecast, with actual shipments at 2.2 MMT, 9% of the forecast. FranceAgriMer estimates French soft wheat crop condition at 52%, down from 57% last week. Managed money spec funds grew more bearish, adding to short positions
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Wheat futures were swimming against the bearish tide on Friday, or perhaps unwinding some inter-market spreads. In any event, all three US markets were higher. Chicago futures settled 5 to 8 cents higher. Kansas City contracts were up 5 ¼ to 7 ¾ for the day. MPLS spring wheat continued its mini-rally, up 8 ¾ to 9 ¼ on the day.
Following USDA’s Export Sales report from Thursday, US export commitments for wheat are now 35% of the full year USDA projection at 7.76 MMT, 1% ahead of the average pace. Actual shipments to date are 2.2 MMT, 9% of that forecast and 1% below the 5-year average.
FranceAgriMer estimates the French soft wheat crop at 52% gd/ex, a 5% drop from the week prior. Last year was 80%. The crop is now 14% harvested, compared to 51% last year and an average at 43%.
The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report from CFTC showed the managed money spec funds drifting more bearish during the week, adding 6,749 contracts to their Chicago net short and 3,085 contracts to their net short in KC HRW futures during the week ending July 16.
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.68, up 8 cents,
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.70, up 7 1/4 cents,
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents,
Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.09 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents,
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents,
Source Link : https://www.barchart.com/story/news/27504456/contrary-opinion-trade-works-for-wheat-on-friday
