December WASDE maintains outlook for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol
The USDA’s latest report keeps 2025–26 U.S. corn use for ethanol at 5.6 billion bushels and maintains the $4 price outlook. Strong export demand lifts export projections and lowers ending stocks to 2 billion bushels. Global production falls, mainly due to reduced output in Ukraine and Canada.
The USDA maintained its outlook for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 9. The outlook for corn prices was also unchanged.
The current 2025-’26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. The estimate for exports is raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion reflecting shipments to date. Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 bushels, surpassing the prior high set during 2007.
With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are projected down 125 million bushels to 2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4 per bushel.
The USDA currently predicts 5.6 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2025-’26, unchanged when compared to the previous outlook. The agency also maintained its estimate for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol at 5.436 billion bushels. An estimated 5.489 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production for 2023-’24.
The outlook for foreign corn production is cut with declines for Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia and Senegal, partially offset by increases for the European Union, Russia and Zimbabwe. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow as a result of wet conditions in key growing areas. Canada corn is reduced based on the latest information from Statistics Canada. The EU is raised reflecting increases for Spain, Hungary, Romania and Poland.
Corn exports for 2025-‘26 are raised for the U.S. but lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports are higher for Colombia with cuts for the EU and Zimbabwe. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher based on an increase for Argentina partly offset by declines for Ukraine and Canada. Global corn stocks, at 279.2 million tons, are down 2.2 million.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
