Dull monsoon may lower paddy yields
New Delhi: A delayed and muted monsoon in the paddy belts of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand has triggered concerns over sowing of the crop and yields.
If yields fall, it may keep prices of paddy and rice elevated.
Farmers across the country so far have sown paddy across 1 million hectares, lower than previous year’s 1.6 million hectares, according to data from the agriculture ministry. This has been due to a 30% deficiency in rainfall in June.
Since the beginning of the month, West Bengal, the largest paddy grower, has received 28% below normal showers, while deficiency in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand was 64%, 38% and 72%.
“Around this time rain is usually in full swing, but there is barely any rainfall this year, which has led to negligible sowing of paddy in my region. People who have irrigation facilities have planted the seed, including me,” said Madhu Kundu, a farmer based in West Bengal’s Burdawan district.
“I have taken the risk to plant paddy seeds across a 15-bigha (acre) land two days ago after waiting for rainfall for a week or so. Though I have an irrigation facility, it will not benefit the entire crop. With irrigation facilities, only half of the land could be cultivated if monsoon does not improve by mid-July.”
“As there is El Nino prediction taking day temperature to record high next year, causing less rainfall in many pockets and given that up to 45°C is good to grow non-basmati varieties, our probability analysis indicates a dip of at least 20% in paddy across India in the next kharif season,” said Suraj Agarwal, co-founder and CEO of Rice Villa, a rice brand.
Paddy requires the most water during the time of sowing, and then again a month before the harvest. While the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala coast was delayed by a week, its progress was affected by cyclone Biparjoy, which ripped through parts of Gujarat last week.
Queries sent on Friday to the Ministry of Agriculture, Consumer Affairs and Food and Public Distribution remained unanswered till press time.
“Non-basmati rice prices are seen to be traded at least 15% higher than last year when fresh harvests start hitting the market from November-December in anticipation of sowing delay hurting the kharif paddy crop not just quantity-wise but also quality wise,” Agarwal added. “Kharif sowing is already delayed, and if rain comes later, the length of paddy, which is usually 6 feet, is expected to be 5 feet. It is because the harvest season will be approaching, and farmers cannot postpone, and thus hampering the growth cycle. Crop size is also anticipated to be reduced by 10-15%,” Agarwal explained.
This hints at a significant loss in crop weight. “Due to lack of proper spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall, we may get about 64-66 kg of rice after milling a quintal paddy, as compared to the usual 69-71 kg, said Kedar Laxmipath of Shri Nagendra Traders based in Telangana’s Kamareddy district.
Probability of a lower crop in 2023-24 amid deficient rains during the peak sowing period have driven farmers to sell their produce at a higher rate, which have pushed up paddy prices by ₹200 a bag of 60 kilograms (kg) to ₹2,400-2,450 in West Bengal. Similarly, medium quality non-basmati rice varieties prices have risen 20-25% since December in Ranchi, Jharkhand and are selling for ₹37-38 a kg, local farmers and traders said
“If monsoon, which is delayed by a fortnight in Jharkhand gathers pace in a week, we still will have a chance of good crop,” said Rajesh Agarwal, a rice miller at Baba Agro Food in Ranchi. “If there is no shower for the next two weeks, the prices of non-basmati variety rice may touch ₹40 a kg.”
Paddy, a water guzzling crop, has the highest share in India’s food grain basket at over 40%, and with a domestic demand of around 105 million tonne, it is most-consumed grain in India.
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