Early wheat harvest boosts supply outlook
India’s wheat harvest has started in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, with early reports showing strong yields and record acreage. Favorable weather has supported crop growth, raising hopes for a bumper harvest. Higher production could boost government stocks, support procurement targets and open new opportunities for India to expand wheat exports.
The harvesting of wheat has begun in parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, with early reports pointing to a strong crop for the key rabi season.
Officials tracking crop prospects said record acreage and favourable weather conditions so far this season could lead to a robust harvest, boosting both government and private stocks.
“Yield has been higher than last year where harvesting of early sown varieties has commenced,” Rajbir Yadav, principal scientist, Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), told FE after reviewing crop conditions across several states.
He added that temperatures currently a few degrees above the normal range are unlikely to significantly affect wheat yields.
An agriculture ministry official said the crop has so far not been impacted by disease or adverse climatic conditions.
The area under wheat cultivation this season has risen to 33.41 million hectares (mha), about 3% higher than last year and well above the normal sown area of 31.2 mha. In Madhya Pradesh alone, the acreage has increased by around 1 mha compared with last season.
The expected bumper harvest is likely to improve market supplies while strengthening both government and private stockpiles. Harvesting in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana is expected to begin by the end of the month.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently said the country’s wheat production in the 2025-26 crop year (July–June) could surpass last year’s record output of 117.94 million tonnes, aided by higher acreage and favourable crop conditions.
Procurement target
After reviewing storage and crop prospects, the food ministry has set a target of 30.31 MT of wheat purchase from the farmers for the 2026-27 rabi marketing season (April June) against 30.03 MT of grain purchase in the previous marketing season.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has announced a bonus of Rs 40 per quintal over the Centre’s minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2,585 per quintal for the 2026-25 season. The Rajasthan government has declared a higher bonus of Rs 150 per quintal over the MSP.
Export prospects
Given the comfortable stock situation and expectation of robust crop harvest, India must ramp up exports of wheat and wheat products, starting with Bangladesh and Nepal, and gradually extending to select ASEAN nations, traders and flour millers said.
“This strategic push is fueled by a robust domestic crop yield, a depreciated rupee and elevated sea freight costs from Middle East tensions making Indian wheat competitively priced, positioning India for a strong foothold in international trade soon,” Navneet Chitlangia, President, Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India, told FE.
Last month, the Food Ministry lifted a nearly four-year-old ban on wheat exports, allowing shipments of 2.5 MT of grain and an additional 0.5 MT of processed wheat products, citing surplus stocks and the prospect of a record harvest.
According to the ministry, private entities currently hold around 7.5 MT of wheat stocks, about 3.2 MT higher than the same period last year — indicating a comfortable supply position.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has projected wheat stocks of 18.2 MT as of April 1, well above the buffer requirement of 7.6 MT.
At present, FCI stocks stand at around 24 MT, while only about 0.6 MT has been sold under the open market sale scheme so far against a target of 3 MT.
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Source : Financial Express
