Egypt’s wheat imports projected to rise to 12.7 MMT in 2025/26 amid population-driven demand surge
Egypt’s wheat imports in 2025/26 are forecast at 12.7 MMT, up 1.6%, with local output rising slightly to 9.2 MMT due to higher procurement prices. Wheat consumption is set at 20.3 MMT, maintaining Egypt’s reliance on imports. Corn imports may climb 9% to 9.5 MMT, while rice output grows 7.7%.
EGYPT – Egypt’s wheat imports for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 are forecasted at 12.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.6 percent from last year, driven by steady consumption growth resulting from sustained population growth, according to the latest USDA Grain and Feed Update released September 22.
With a population now exceeding 108 million and projected to reach 124 million by 2030, Egypt remains the world’s top wheat importer.
The FAS anticipates a modest expansion in Egypt’s wheat harvest to 9.2 MMT for MY 2025/26, compared to 9 MMT in the preceding season. This projection reflects the influence of elevated government procurement prices, which have encouraged farmers to augment wheat cultivation and direct sales to state entities.
Authorities are offering guaranteed farmgate prices ranging from US$277 to US$290 per ton, a measure that has already helped secure nearly 4 MMT of locally produced wheat this year. However, domestic output accounts for only 50% to 55% of national wheat needs, which is compounded by the demands of an extensive subsidy program that provides affordable bread to the majority of the population.
Consumption is expected to reach 20.3 MMT, up from 20 MMT in MY 2024/25, largely due to food, seed, and industrial demand.
In recent years, the private sector has amplified its participation in wheat imports, facilitating increased flour production for export to regional markets and supply to private bakeries and cafes specializing in premium products.
However, wheat flour exports are projected to decline to 1 MMT in MY 2025/26, a 23% reduction from the 1.3 MMT estimated for MY 2024/25. This downturn stems from more stringent government export regulations designed to equilibrate domestic requirements with export quantities.
The FAS estimates production at 6.7 MMT for MY 2025/26 (October-September), a decrease of nearly 7.6% from prior projections, attributed to excessive heat during the growing period and significant insect infestations, notably the fall armyworm, which diminished kernel counts and yields from July to August.
Consumption is expected to escalate by 4.4% year-on-year to 16.5 MMT, driven by heightened demand from the poultry sector, the primary consumer of corn for feed. To address domestic shortfalls, imports are forecasted to rise by 9% to 9.5 MMT.
Egypt’s yellow corn production satisfies less than 30% of feed requirements, with imports predominantly sourced from Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina.
For rice, milled production is projected at 4.2 MMT in MY 2025/26, an increase of 7.7% from earlier estimates and exceeding the 3.9 MMT harvested in MY 2024/25.
This growth is ascribed to rice’s comparatively lower production costs relative to other summer crops, such as corn or cotton, prompting farmers to exceed the cultivation quotas designated by Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.
Consumption and residual use are anticipated to remain stable at 4 MMT, with imports of 140,000 metric tons projected to fulfill demand.
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Source : Milling MEA
