EIA: April STEO maintains outlook for 2025, 2026 ethanol production and exports
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its 2025–2026 fuel ethanol production forecast at 1.05 million barrels per day, slightly down from 1.06 million in 2024. Ethanol blending is expected to remain at 930,000 barrels/day in 2025 but dip to 920,000 in 2026. Net imports will remain at -130,000 barrels/day, unchanged from previous estimates.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 10. The agency also maintained its outlook for ethanol exports.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, down from 1.06 million barrels per day in 2024.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters of 2025, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.04 barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are expected to average -130,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024. Both forecasts were maintained from last month.
The EIA maintained its outlook that fuel ethanol blending will average 930,000 barrels per day in 2025. The agency, however, reduced its forecast for 2026 fuel ethanol blending to 920,000 barrels per day, down from the March STEO forecast of 930,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending was at 930,000 barrels per day last year.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
