EIA increases forecast for 2025 ethanol production in June STEO
The U.S. EIA raised its 2025 fuel ethanol production forecast to 1.06 million barrels per day, up from 1.05 mb/d. The 2026 forecast remains at 1.05 mb/d. Net ethanol imports are now projected at -130,000 b/d for both years. Blending estimates stay unchanged at 930,000 b/d for 2025 and 920,000 b/d for 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 ethanol exports were also revised up.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.06 million barrels per day this year, up from last month’s outlook of 1.05 million barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day in 2026. Ethanol production averaged 1.06 million barrels per day last year.
On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters of this year, expanding to 1.07 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, ethanol fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day during the second quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day during the third quarter, and 1.07 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are expected to average -130,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2025, compared to the EIA’s May STEO forecast of -120,000 barrels per day. Net imports of fuel ethanol averaged 130,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day this year and 920,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were unchanged from the May STEO. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day last year.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
