EIA increases forecasts for 2025 and 2026 ethanol production
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production forecasts, expecting 1.06 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.05 million in 2026. Ethanol exports projections also increased, while the 2026 domestic blending outlook was revised down to 920,000 barrels per day. Production is set to fluctuate quarterly but remain strong.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11. The outlook for domestic fuel ethanol blending in 2026 was revised down. The outlook for ethanol exports was also expanded for both 2025 and 2026.
The agency currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.06 million barrels per day in 2025, up from last month’s forecast of 1.05 million barrels per day. Ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day in 2026, up from the January outlook of 1.04 million barrels per day. Production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in 2024.
On quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2025, falling to 1.04 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and expanding to 1.06 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.07 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, production is expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters, and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net ethanol exports are currently expected to average -130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, compared to the January outlook of -120,000 barrels per day. Net ethanol exports were -120,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol blending will average 930,000 barrels per day in 2025, but lowered its outlook for 2026 ethanol blending to 920,000 barrels per day, down from the forecast of 930,000 barrels per day made in January. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
