EIA Maintains Forecast For 2024 And 2025 Ethanol Production, Increases Forecast For 2025 Ethanol Blending
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook retains fuel ethanol production forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with blending projections adjusted upward for 2025. Production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day, while blending is forecasted at 930,000 barrels per day for 2024, rising to 940,000 barrels per day in 2025. Quarterly production estimates indicate a gradual increase throughout 2024 and 2025, aligning with market trends.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2024 and 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 7. The agency also maintained its forecast for 2024 ethanol blending but increased its forecast for 2025 blending.
The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day this year and next year, up from 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023. Both forecasts were maintained from the agency’s April STEO.
On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.02 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters of 2024, expanding to 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2025, ethanol production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day during the first half of the year, falling to 1.02 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and expanding to 1.04 million barrels per day in the final quarter of next year.
The EIA maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol blending will average 930,000 barrels per day this year, but now expects fuel ethanol blending to increase to 940,000 barrels per day in 2025, up from the April forecast of 930,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2023.
