EIA maintains forecast for 2025, 2026 ethanol production, reduces forecast for exports
The U.S. Energy Information Administration kept its 2025–2026 fuel ethanol production forecast steady at 1.05 million barrels per day, while slightly lowering export expectations. Blending estimates remain unchanged at 930,000 and 920,000 barrels per day. Quarterly output is projected to fluctuate slightly, and net imports are expected to average -120,000 barrels daily, reflecting a continued export surplus.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its outlook for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 6. The outlook for fuel ethanol exports was lowered.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the April STEO. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.06 million barrels per day in 2024.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to overage 1.03 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.03million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA currently expects net imports of fuel ethanol to average -120,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, compared to last month’s outlook of -130,000 barrels per day. Net imports averaged -130,000 barrels per day last year.
The agency maintained its outlook for fuel ethanol blending for 2025 and 2025 at 930,000 barrels per day and 920,000 barrels per day, respectively. Both forecasts were unchanged from the April STEO. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
