FAS: Record corn crop expected in China
China’s 2025–26 corn output is now forecast at a record 298 million tonnes despite a 2-million-tonne cut due to delayed planting. The USDA’s FAS cites yield gains from Beijing’s grain expansion plan. Imports are projected at 8 million tonnes—far below 2023–24 levels. US corn exports to China remain minimal, with Brazil and Russia increasing their share.
Although China’s corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year recently was revised lower by 2 million tonnes by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, a record crop of 298 million tonnes is still expected to be harvested.
In its first forecast since April, the FAS lowered projected output due to slightly lower planted area and delayed planting, but a record crop is still anticipated due to improved yields in accordance with a government plan initiated in 2024 to boost the country’s grain production capacity by 50 million tonnes by 2030, with corn as a major contributor to the grain output increase.
The FAS projects a 2-million-tonne decline in imports from the previous forecast at 8 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes over 2024-25 but still well below historical levels. As recently as 2023-24, China imported 23 million tonnes of corn.
“The Chinese government continues to promote higher local production via better yield on stable area and discourages grain imports reportedly to protect the interests of local farmers,” the FAS said.
China has seen corn imports from Brazil increase over the past several years. Corn imports from Russia have reached up to 30,000 tonnes per month over the past year, a pace expected to continue with a limited impact on China’s overall grain supply, the FAS said. In contrast, corn imports from Ukraine have declined sharply during that time, totaling only 50,000 tonnes in the first four months of this year compared to 200,000 tonnes during the same period last year.
US corn exports to China also have plummeted since October 2024, having fallen below 10,000 tonnes monthly, with no significant shipments reported.
“Industry states that the United States remains the most uncertain source among all corn suppliers to China,” the agency said.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
