Global record wheat harvests are putting pressure on prices, with analysts predicting further declines.
Global wheat markets remain pressured despite production cuts in some importing nations, as major exporters are set to harvest record volumes. Argus Media estimates global supply at 484 million tonnes, with 421 million tonnes from key exporters. Even increased demand from North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia won’t offset the surplus, pushing stocks higher.
Despite production cuts in a number of importing countries, the global wheat market remains under pressure from record supply.
Argus Media forecasts that grain prices will continue to decline in the 2025-2026 season as eight leading exporters harvest their largest crops on record, The Western Producer reports .
Analysts estimate that global wheat supply will reach 484 million tonnes, significantly exceeding the previous record of 458 million tonnes. Major exporters, including Ukraine, the United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Russia, France, and the European Union, will supply 421 million tonnes of the harvest.
“The world needs massive demand from key importing countries in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia to offset this glut,” said Arthur Portier, senior consultant at Argus Media.
According to him, even the expected increase in imports in these regions—to 57 million tons versus 45 million tons a year earlier—is unable to offset the sharp increase in global supply. As a result, ending grain stocks will rise to 75 million tons, the highest level since the 2017–2018 marketing year.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
