Global rice market to see record-high production, favourable supply in 2025-2026
Global rice production in 2025-26 is projected at a record 556.4 million tonnes, with total supply reaching 767.2 million tonnes. Ending stocks are expected to hit 215.6 million tonnes, maintaining a 38.7% stock-to-use ratio. Consumption will rise to 550.8 million tonnes, while trade moderates slightly to 60.1 million tonnes.
The latest projections for the world rice market in the 2025-2026 season indicate a period of exceptional supply and robust stock accumulation, according to the newest data released in the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
The global rice market is forecast to reach new highs in both overall supply and ending stocks, reflecting continued strength in production and inventory management.
Key forecasts for 2025-2026 season
New peak in production: World rice production is projected to reach 556.4 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025-2026, marking a solid increase over the 549.8 mnt recorded in the previous season and setting a new record high.
Record supply, stocks: Driven by strong production and substantial opening stocks, total global rice supply is forecast to hit a record 767.2 mnt. Consequently, world rice ending stocks are projected to rise to an all-time high of 215.6 mnt from 210.8 mnt in the 2024-2025 season.
Stable stock-to-use ratio: The crucial world stock-to-use ratio is projected to remain at a favourable level of 38.7%, indicating ample supply relative to global consumption. The ratio for major exporters is also forecast to increase slightly to 31.9% (from 31.6%), suggesting sustained export capacity.
Increased utilisation: Global utilisation (consumption) of rice is expected to increase to 550.8 mnt, reflecting growing global demand.
Trade stabilisation: Following an exceptionally high year, world rice trade is expected to see a slight moderation to 60.1 mnt in 2025-2026 from the projected 61.2 mnt in 2024-2025. Despite this slight decline, the projected trade volume remains historically robust.
Overall, the data underscores a well-supplied global rice market heading into 2025-2026, providing a stable foundation for global food security and market operations.
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Source : Bigmint
