Global rice prices to stay under pressure in 2026 amid exporter competition
Global rice prices are likely to stay under pressure through 2026 as India, Thailand and Vietnam compete to offload surplus stocks. While lower prices benefit consumers in Africa and Asia, farmers face tighter margins. Record production, rising inventories and cautious buying are keeping the market bearish.
GLOBAL – Global rice prices are expected to remain under pressure through 2026 as major exporting countries, led by India, Thailand and Vietnam, compete aggressively to clear surplus supplies, prompting buyers to delay purchases, according to trade and industry officials.
Lower prices are likely to provide relief to price-sensitive consumers in Africa and parts of Asia, where rice is a staple food and import bills have risen sharply over the past three years.
However, the outlook points to tighter margins for farmers across Asia, which accounts for nearly 90% of global rice production and where farm incomes are already under strain from rising input costs.
“Key exporters such as India, Thailand and Vietnam are sitting on surplus, and buyers know it. They’re testing sellers’ patience by holding back on purchases,” said Nitin Gupta, senior vice president at Olam Agri India.
India, the world’s largest rice exporter with close to 40% of global shipments, is central to the current price dynamic. Gupta said Indian rice prices could fall by US$15 to US$25 per ton by March as supplies increase from the new-season harvest, which is expected to be a record.
He was speaking on the sidelines of the India International Rice Summit.
Indian rice prices have already shown volatility. They recently edged up from a nine-year low reached in October, but remain competitive.
India is currently offering 5% broken parboiled rice at around US$355–US$360 per ton, while 5% broken white rice is priced at US$350–US$355 per ton. These levels are below offers from Thailand and Vietnam, reflecting the weight of domestic supply.
The pressure is being amplified by rising stockpiles. India’s new-season crop is adding to already large inventories from the previous season.
Government data show rice stocks in state warehouses rose nearly 12% from a year earlier to a record 57.57 million metric tons in early December, following stepped-up procurement by state agencies.
According to Niraj Kumar, head of India rice business at Aditya Birla Global Trading, these inventories are a key factor pulling Indian export prices lower than regional competitors.
Globally, supply fundamentals remain bearish. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates world rice output will reach a record 556.4 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, up 1.2% from the previous year.
Improved yields and expanded planted area in Asia are offsetting weather-related concerns seen in earlier seasons.
On the demand side, competition among exporters is intensifying as some traditional buyers curb imports.
Indonesia and the Philippines, two of the world’s largest rice importers, have recently imposed restrictions to protect domestic producers and manage stocks.
“This has increased competition among exporters looking for a bigger share of other markets,” said Mukesh Jain, president of The Rice Exporters Association Chhattisgarh.
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Source : Milling MEA
