Global sugar consumption projected to expand by 1.2% per annum and reach 202 million tonnes by 2034: OECD-FAO report
Global sugar consumption is projected to grow 1.2% annually, reaching 202 million metric tonnes by 2034, driven mainly by Asia and Africa. While per capita consumption is rising in these regions, health concerns are reducing intake in the Americas, Europe, and Oceania. HFCS consumption will continue declining globally.
Over the next ten years, global sugar consumption is projected to expand by 1.2% per annum and reach 202 Million metric tonnes (Mt) by 2034, driven by population and income growth, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 report.
The report noted that with the projected rapid growth in population and income, Asia and Africa are expected to contribute the most to the increase in global demand compared to the reference period, accounting for 64% and 29% of the world total growth, respectively. Dietary shifts driven by urbanisation and increasing disposable incomes are expected to be key drivers of the increase. However, by 2034, per capita consumption is anticipated to reach 15.6 kg in Africa and 21.2 kg in Asia, both below the projected world average of 23.1 kg/person.
In Asia, India is expected to contribute the most to the overall increase in sugar consumption, followed by Indonesia, Pakistan and then China. In these countries, except China, population growth and rising income are expected to sustain demand for processed food and beverage products over the next decade. In China, most of the demand growth is expected to come from smaller and less developed cities, while in larger, more developed cities, health concerns and government awareness campaigns are likely to slow growth. In terms of per capita food consumption, Asian LDCs are expected to be the main drivers of the region’s annual growth of 1.5% over the next decade, it said.
Across Africa, Least Developed Sub-Saharan countries are expected to record the highest growth rate in per capita consumption, primarily due to projected increases in disposable income and higher spending on processed foods and beverages. Growth is also expected in North Africa. By contrast, in South Africa, the declining trend in per capita sugar consumption recorded in recent years–amid government measures to discourage its use, including the Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) taxation and public health campaigns–is expected to persist over the next decade; with many food manufacturers reformulating their products to reduce sugar content.
As per the report, sugar, a fibre-free carbohydrate, is a common ingredient in numerous food and beverage products and represents a key source of energy in the human diet. High levels of sugar consumption are associated with health concerns and WHO recommends reducing the intake of free sugars (i.e. sugar added to foods during production or cooking including sugars found in honey, syrups, and fruit juices) to less than 10% of the total daily energy intake. All regions covered in this Outlook, except the Americas and Oceania, will see an increase in per capita intakes of caloric sweeteners, but disparities will persist within regions. The largest increase will take place in the highly populated regions of South and Southeast Asia.
Over the coming decade, Asia and Africa will remain the regions where the diet will include the greatest proportion of staple foods which are rich in carbohydrates, and the lowest proportion of caloric sweeteners, particularly in Sub-Sahara Africa.
Downward trends in caloric sweetener consumption are expected to continue across other traditionally high-consuming regions.
Traditionally, the Americas, the Caribbean and European countries record the highest level of per capita sugar consumption with caloric sweeteners accounting for at least 12% of dietary carbohydrates and exceeding 20% in the United States in particular. Since 2010, caloric sweetener consumption in these countries has been trending downwards as awareness of their adverse health effects has increased. Over the next decade, the decline is projected to continue, although at a slower pace.
Compared to other regions, Latin America is expected to account for the highest level of sugar consumption. Over the past fifteen years, high per capita consumption levels have raised concerns about their negative health effects. In response, several countries, including Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and more recently Brazil, have introduced a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages intended to reduce soft drink intake. Some countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru have implemented mandatory front-of-package labelling to promote healthier product choices. Over the next decade, the region is projected to experience a decline in per capita total caloric sweetener consumption, led by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Mexico and Peru.
During the last decade, Europe had the highest per capita intake and the second highest total sugar consumption level. For the past two decades, European countries have sought to take measures to avoid excessive sugar consumption, prompting the industry to reformulate the composition of its products and consumers to gradually adopt healthier diets. Over the next ten years, the region will experience the biggest decline in consumption among the regions covered in the Outlook. Although per capita sugar consumption in the European Union will remain the highest in the region, it is expected to see a continuing decline over the next decade, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous decade, a trend also observed in the United Kingdom and Switzerland. Conversely, per capita sugar consumption is expected to increase in Ukraine and some other European countries.
Per capita consumption levels are also projected to decline in high sugar‑consuming countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. However, this decline will be less visible in the United States as consumers will favour sugar-sweetened products over HFCS. In Japan and Korea,2 minimal changes are expected, except for the decrease in volume caused by population decline.
High Fructose Corn Syrup, the other caloric sweetener, is used primarily in beverages as a substitute for sugar. Unlike sugar, it is a liquid product and therefore less easily traded. Global consumption will remain the domain of a limited group of countries with no major changes. The largest producer, the United States, will remain the main consumer but the debate surrounding whether HFCS poses a greater potential health risk than does sugar is expected to continue, and the downward trend in consumption that started in the mid-2000s is expected to continue: by 2034, HFCS is foreseen to represent 33% of the caloric sweetener consumption compared to 35% during the base period. HFCS production in the United States is projected to decline slightly to 6.3 Mt. Mexico is the third largest consumer (behind China) and the efforts of the government to reduce caloric sweetener consumption are expected to continue over the next ten years, leading to lower intake of HFCS sweetened soft drinks.
China, the world’s second largest producer, is expected to see the biggest increase in consumption, although intake will remain low compared to Japan or Korea. Over the next decade, Chinese HFCS production is projected to increase and meet domestic demand (+0.2 Mt by 2034). No increase is foreseen in Japan and Korea with a consumption of about 5 kg/capita. In the European Union, HFCS will remain uncompetitive with sugar over the next decade, accounting for only one kg/capita in 2034.
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Source : Chinimandi
