Global wheat prices remain under pressure as strong supply weigh on markets
Global wheat prices weakened in late July as strong harvest progress, ample supply prospects, currency movements, and subdued export demand pressured markets, AHDB reported. UK feed wheat futures fell 1.6% to £174.55/t, mirroring declines in Paris and Chicago. Soybean prices also dropped on weaker Chinese demand and expectations of a bumper US harvest.
GLOBAL – The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed that global wheat markets remain under pressure, with prices slipping toward the end of July as strong supply prospects, harvest progress, currency movements, and subdued export demand continue to weigh on sentiment.
In the UK, November 2025 feed wheat futures dropped by £2.90 per tonne (–1.6%) to close at £174.55/t (about US$222/t), mirroring declines across international markets.
Paris milling wheat and Chicago wheat futures (December 2025) also weakened, falling 2.0% and 3.8% respectively. The sharper drop in Chicago was attributed to a stronger US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
Ample supply expectations are keeping markets cautious. In the United States, 80% of the winter wheat crop had been harvested by July 27, with spring wheat harvesting beginning in some regions.
Forecasted rainfall across the Midwest may cause delays, though crop progress remains ahead of schedule. In Europe, French farmers had harvested 89% of their soft wheat crop by July 28, up from 86% a week earlier and well ahead of the 63% pace last year.
However, persistent rainfall in Germany and Poland is hampering fieldwork and raising concerns over crop quality.
Elsewhere, Argentina has benefited from recent rainfall that boosted soil moisture ahead of the completion of 2025/26 wheat planting, supporting expectations of a robust harvest.
Despite solid supply prospects, export demand remains lacklustre. Weekly US wheat export sales reached 592,100 tonnes for the week ending July 24, down 17% from the previous week, though in line with recent averages.
EU soft wheat exports are also trailing behind last year’s levels, though renewed interest from Jordan, Bangladesh, and Egypt provided a modest lift to sentiment.
In the UK domestic market, feed wheat delivered to millers is averaging £176.50/t (about US$224/t), while November bread wheat is trading higher at £222/t (about US$282/t), reflecting ongoing demand in the milling sector.
Wheat markets are not alone in facing pressure. Global soybean prices have also softened amid weaker Chinese demand.
A glut of soya meal in China, driven by strong imports earlier in 2025 and lower demand from animal feed producers, has swelled inventories. This has weighed on Chicago soybean futures (November 2025), which recently fell to their lowest level since April. Expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest are adding further downward pressure.
With harvests advancing across key producing regions and export demand yet to show significant improvement, analysts expect grain markets to remain under strain in the near term.
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Source : Milling MEA
