Ground reality paints more reassuring picture: Tarun Sawhney on India’s sugar production
Despite lower sugar production estimates for the current season, industry leaders remain optimistic about India’s sugar sector. As of March 15, India has produced 23.8 million tonnes of sugar and expects to meet the revised estimate of 26.4 million tonnes. Global sugar production faces challenges, pushing prices higher, but domestic supply remains stable. Industry experts highlight the need to increase the minimum selling price (MSP) to ensure long-term sustainability. The government’s decision to allow 10 lakh tonnes of sugar exports has also supported millers and farmers, with no concerns about shortages.
With the estimation of lower sugar production for the current season compared to the previous season, industry leaders are optimistic about a reassuring situation.
Tarun Sawhney, Vice Chairman & Managing Director of Triveni Engineering and Industries Ltd (TEIL), said, “While there has been growing speculation around India’s sugar production this season, the ground reality paints a more reassuring picture. As of March 15, India has already produced approximately 23.8 million tonnes of sugar and the industry expects to comfortably meet the revised net production estimate of 26.4 million tonnes, even after diverting 3.5 million tonnes towards ethanol. In Uttar Pradesh, where nearly 75% of mills continue to crush, the season is likely to extend into April. Additionally, special crushing in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu scheduled for June-July will further support the overall output.”
“In contrast, global sugar production is facing significant headwinds. The International Sugar Organization has sharply revised the global sugar deficit to 4.88 million tonnes for 2024–25—the largest in nine years. With Brazil, the world’s largest producer, experiencing dry weather and lower yield projections, global prices are climbing rapidly. This global tightness in supply is driving up futures and creating volatility,” he added.
TEIL’s Vice Chairman and Managing Director further stressed the need to increase the minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar and stated “Amidst this backdrop, India’s sugar sector stands out for its relative stability. There is no immediate concern about domestic availability or price spikes, despite international market pressures. However, one area that warrants urgent attention is the sugar MSP. While the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) has increased by over 11% in the past two years—from ₹305 to ₹340 per quintal—retail sugar prices have risen only 5%. This growing mismatch poses long-term sustainability questions for millers and farmers alike, and it is imperative for policymakers to revisit the MSP structure to ensure equitable value distribution across the supply chain.”
Recently, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the apex body in the sugar and bio-energy industry in the country, affirmed the stable and sufficient availability of sugar across the country for the ongoing 2024-25 Sugar Season (SS), dispelling any concerns about potential shortages and supply constraints.
With a projected closing stock of 54 lakh tonnes by September 30, 2025, ISMA projects that India’s sugar reserves will remain more than adequate to meet domestic demand.
Recently, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) revised the sugar production estimates to 259 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) for sugar season 2024-25. The recent estimate is 6 lakh tonnes lower than the earlier projection of 265 LMT. In the previous season, sugar production was 319 lakh tonnes.
According to the industry official, the Indian government’s recent decision, announced on January 20, 2025, to allow the export of 10 lakh tonnes of sugar for the current season has significantly benefitted the industry. This policy has helped balance domestic sugar stocks while providing financial stability to millers and better price realization for mills. The timely exports have allowed mills to make prompt cane payments, benefiting 5.5 crore farmers and their families.
As per the reliable sources, there is no indication of sugar export ban as there is enough sugar stock available in the country.
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Source : ChiniMandi
