Higher Philippine rice yields expected amid robust gov’t support—USDA
The Philippines’ rice production is projected to rise slightly to 12.25 million metric tons in marketing year 2025/26, driven by expanded government support, including the RCEF and subsidized rice programs. Consumption will grow to 17.3 million MT, supported by affordable rice schemes. Favorable weather and enhanced input access also contribute, while rice imports remain steady at 5.2 million MT.
The Philippines will see a slight improvement in its rice production in the upcoming marketing year (MY) as the government’s support programs for the sector—including the sale of subsidized rice—are now starting to pay off, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In a report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila estimated that milled rice production will inch up to 12.25 million metric tons (MT) within the period starting July 2025 and ending in June 2026.
The latest projection was adjusted upward from an estimate of 12.2 million MT for MY 2024 to 2025.
The USDA-FAS cited the government’s continued support for the rice industry as the key driver for the growth.
“Farmers report that the support from the government has been instrumental in ensuring continuous rice production,” it said.
The government’s Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), in particular, has been driving farm productivity, resulting in higher yield.
Embodied under Republic Act (RA) No. 11203 or the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL), RCEF supports initiatives such as seed production, farm mechanization, training, and other farm inputs.
Last year, the law amending the RTL saw annual RCEF allocation under the national budget surge to ₱30 billion from an initial ₱10 billion.
“Aside from increasing farm productivity, farmer contacts report that the continuous provisions of farm inputs for rice production encourages farmers to continue planting rice,” the foreign agency said.
It likewise cited the Price Range Scheme or PRICERS program of the National Food Authority (NFA) for providing farmers with additional markets to sell their palay or unmilled rice at higher prices.
The increase in rice production will support the country’s firm demand for the commodity as its primary staple food, with consumption projected to reach 17.3 million MT in the next MY.
For the current MY, consumption is also seen to improve from 17.2 million MT to 17.3 million MT, primarily driven by sales of subsidized rice.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier introduced the maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) scheme to bring rice retail prices down. From an initial price limit of ₱58 per kilogram, it has since gone down to the current ₱45 per kilo.
The agency also launched the Rice-for-All program, which offers affordable rice through Kadiwa ng Pangulo (KNP) stores, with offerings ranging between ₱29 and ₱45 a kilo.
Another key program is the Benteng Bigas Meron na, which sells rice at ₱20 per kilo, targeting vulnerable sectors, as well as minimum wage workers.
“The government’s initiatives to expand the accessibility of more affordable rice backs the estimated increase in consumption within MY 2024/2025,” the report read.
Further, the USDA-FAS pointed to favorable weather conditions in the first quarter of 2025 as supportive of rice production in the current MY and the next.
It is likely that the rainy season during the second quarter of the year would strengthen local rice production, especially in rice-producing regions such as Central Luzon, Ilocos, and Western Visayas. This offsets the effects of the drier season in Cagayan Valley.
Meanwhile, the foreign agency maintained its forecast for rice imports at 5.2 million MT for the upcoming MY.
In the current MY, however, the import estimate declined by nearly two percent to 5.2 million MT, given the aforementioned strong production.
For corn, local production is poised to rise to 8.3 million MT in the next MY, up from the adjusted estimate of 8.2 million MT in the current MY due to better weather conditions in the first quarter of the year.
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Source : The Manila Bulletin
