IEA predicts 20% growth in renewable fuels by 2030, but says more substantial growth is needed to meet net-zero goals
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Renewables Market Report, published on Oct. 9, includes a new chapter on renewable fuels, projecting growth in liquid biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biogas by 2030. Despite accelerated growth, renewable fuels are expected to meet less than 6% of energy demand. The IEA emphasizes the need to double adoption for net-zero emissions by 2050.
The International Energy Agency on Oct. 9 published its annual Renewables market report, which for the first time includes a chapter focused on renewable fuels that outlines expected growth in liquid biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biogas, and other forms of bioenergy through 2030.
According to the IEA, the share of renewable fuels in total energy demand is expected to remain below 6% in 2030 despite accelerated growth. In order for growth in renewable fuels to align with the IEA’s scenario for achieving net-zero energy sector emissions by 2050, the report indicates renewable fuel adoption would need to double by 2030. Under current market conditions, however, the sector is only expected to achieve 20% growth.
Bioenergy is expected to account for nearly all growth in the renewables sector through 2030, with bioenergy expanding most significantly in the industrial sector, followed by transportation and buildings. The IEA predicts that road biofuels will remain dominant through 2030, but notes that the consumption of biofuels for aviation and maritime uses is accelerating. The outlook predicts that biofuels for use in aviation will account for approximately 2% of total aviation fuel supply by 2030, from near zero last year. That increase is expected to be supported by mandates in the European Union, United Kingdom and the U.S. In the maritime sector, EU legislation is expected to drive growth, with biofuels accounting for nearly 0.5% of international shipping fuel demand by 2030.
Within the report, the IEA predicts that modern solid bioenergy will account for most renewable fuel growth and use in 2030. The agency explained that solid bioenergy is primarily used for heat, with three-quarters of the increase over the forecast period in the industrial sector. That growth mostly reflects expanding sugar and ethanol production in India, with remaining growth expected to result from the rollout of improved biomass cooking and heating stoves in sub-Saharan Africa, India and China.
Biogas demand is expected to expand by 30% through 2030, led by the U.S. and EU. The use of biomethane in transport is expected to be the main driver of biogas growth in the near term.
The chapter on renewable fuels also addresses expected demand increases for renewable hydrogen and e-fuels for use in transport. By 2030, the IEA predicts that nearly 40% of renewable hydrogen demand is expected to come from the transportation sector, with the remaining 60% used to replace fossil-based hydrogen in refineries, the chemical and fertilizer industries as well as steel production.
