India may find it tough to export 2.5 million tonnes of wheat this year
India may struggle to export wheat despite lifting its ban, as domestic prices remain above global levels. With MSP fixed at ₹2,585/quintal and export costs near $305/tonne versus global rates around $260, competitiveness is limited. Even with record stocks held by the Food Corporation of India, exports may remain minimal.
India will find it tough to find buyers abroad for its wheat as the domestic cost of the foodgrain is higher than the global market, traders and analysts say.
According to a New Delhi-based trader, it will be an uphill task, particularly with the government fixing the minimum support price for wheat at ₹2,585 a quintal, up ₹160 from last year.
Last week, the Government lifted a nearly four-year-old ban on wheat exports and allowed shipments of 2.5 million tonnes (mt). This was to ensure remunerative prices for growers after domestic rates dropped to ₹2,527/quintal in the first half of this month from₹2,587l in January.
Current prices
Currently, prices of domestic wheat delivered at Kandla port from Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh cost between ₹25,200 and ₹2,5,500 a tonne. In dollar terms, wheat prices delivered at Kandla are pegged at $285-288 a tonne. If a freight rate of $20 a tonne is taken into account for the Middle East and South-East Asia, the cost and freight could be $305-308 a tonne.
At the same time, if Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh wheat is to be shipped from Visakhapatnam, it could cost $306-310 a tonne. In comparison, global wheat prices are ruling at $260 a tonne. “Though Indian wheat commands some premium in the Middle East, a difference of $45-48 will make it pricey,” said the trader.
Another North India-based trader said Indian wheat will not be able to compete internationally as farmers are unlikely to offer wheat below the MSP.
Global offers
Traders said global trading companies such as Olam International, Bunge and Louis Dreyfus were offering wheat for the second half of March between $286 and $290 a tonne.
Another trader, based in the South, said Indian wheat prices with 11.5 protein content are traded $20 a tonne higher than the grain from the Black Sea region.
According to Freyer’s wheat report, Australian wheat is finding good demand in the global market despite stiff competition from Argentina and a strong Australian dollar.
North American wheat is finding export demand, which could be higher than what the US Department of Agriculture has forecast, while the produce from the European Union and Black Sea region is getting sidelined.
Best option
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s wheat exports more than doubled to 2.29 mt in December from November 2025, with Indonesia, China and the Philippines being the major bulk buyers.
However, there is one option for India to export wheat. It can be by road or rail to Bangladesh. The south-based trader said wheat exported from Bihar by road or rail could cost $283 a tonne compared with the current landing price of $270.
“Wheat export to Bangladesh is the best option. The best-case scenario is India can export a maximum of one lakh tonnes, that too from Bihar,” said the trader.
Traders said that with a new regime taking over in Bangladesh under Tariq Rahman, India could look at a government-to-government export of wheat.
Record stocks
An analyst said India is under pressure to export wheat as its ending stocks as of March 31 could be at a 10-year high of 21 mt. Currently, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has 25.31 mt of wheat and 34.61 mt of record-high rice stocks. It also has unmilled paddy, which in terms of rice is 40.49 mt.
“With the upcoming wheat crop looking good and no chance of the Government providing subsidy for exports, one wonders how India will compete in the export market,” wondered the north-based trader.
India banned wheat exports on May 13, 2022, after the production was affected by severe heatwaves in the growing regions. The ban was also to tame rising food inflation as wheat prices surged 60 per cent then.
The production that year was pegged at below 110 million tonnes.
In 2023, too, production was affected by unseasonal rain, though it improved to 113.29 million tonnes. Following the climate change impact, the government encouraged farmers to go in for climate-resilient wheat varieties from the 2024 season. This helped production to increase to 117.95 million tonnes in 2025.
To Read more about Wheat News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : The Hindu Business line
