India returns to wheat export market with 3 MT as global supplies hit record levels
India has resumed wheat exports, approving 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 0.5 million tonnes of products after lifting the 2022 ban. With record output expected, the move aims to manage surplus and support farmers. However, higher prices mean limited global impact in an already well-supplied market.
INDIA – India has re-entered the global wheat export market, approving shipments of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 500,000 tonnes of wheat-derived products for the current season, according to data relayed by S&P Global Platts.
Authorities cleared the sales on February 13, effectively ending export restrictions that had been in place since May 13, 2022.
The earlier ban was introduced to curb rising domestic prices amid tight supply prospects following lower output and global market disruptions.
At the time, the decision sent shockwaves through international grain markets, particularly as it came just two months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had already tightened global wheat supplies and driven prices sharply higher.
In an official statement, the Press Information Bureau explained the rationale behind the policy shift.
“Given the increased availability of stocks, softening prices, higher production prospects, and the need to avoid distress sales during the peak arrival period, the government’s decision to allow the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat and 500,000 tons of wheat products will help stabilize domestic prices, improve market liquidity, ensure efficient stock rotation, and further boost farmers’ incomes, while preserving national food security.”
The decision comes against the backdrop of robust production prospects. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its February 2026 assessment, forecasts India’s wheat output to reach a record 117.9 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 marketing season.
This follows an already strong harvest of 113.2 million tonnes recorded in the previous year. Improved weather conditions and expanded acreage have supported the higher production outlook, easing earlier supply concerns.
Marginal impact in a well-supplied global market
While domestic industry players have welcomed the reopening of exports, international traders remain cautious about the broader market implications.
The USDA projects global wheat production at a record 841 million tonnes in 2025/2026, reflecting strong harvests across major exporting regions.
With supply comfortably exceeding immediate demand pressures, analysts expect Indian cargoes to have only a marginal effect on global trade flows.
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), wheat futures have been under downward pressure amid abundant global stocks. Additional Indian volumes could reinforce this trend, although most traders believe the impact will be limited in a highly competitive market environment.
India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer and consumer after China, but it remains a relatively small exporter compared with established suppliers such as Russia, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Ukraine.
According to local traders cited by Platts, Indian wheat is currently priced between US$280 and US$290 per tonne. At these levels, it struggles to compete with lower-priced origins.
Recent USDA data show Argentine wheat offered at US$208 per tonne, followed by the European Union at US$238, Russia at US$229, Australia at US$252 and the United States at US$258.
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Source : Milling MEA
