India’s lower sugar output tightens global supply, lifts white sugar prices
India’s sugar output may drop to 26 million tons due to crop disease in Uttar Pradesh, tightening global supply and driving up white sugar prices. While production may rebound next season, near-term shortages persist as Thailand’s output also declines. Export restrictions were eased, but slow shipments continue as millers anticipate higher prices. White sugar futures rose 8% this month.
The sugar market is expected to tighten as disappointing output in India, the world’s second-largest producer, threatens higher prices for prompt supplies.
The country’s output in the current season could fall to 26 million tons after disease hurt the cane crop in its top producing region of Uttar Pradesh, according to Ravi Gupta, an executive director with major producer Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd said on the sidelines of the Dubai Sugar Conference last week. That’s about 1 million tons lower than most industry estimates surveyed at the event.
While sugar production is expected to rebound in the next season, starting October, tipping the world into a surplus, supplies could remain tight in the near term as output in another key producer Thailand, are also seen lower this season. That’s helped propel white sugar futures up more than 8 per cent so far this month.
“I see a strong demand for white sugar and lower supplies from EU and Thailand,” said Gupta. “We are seeing a possibility of a very low crop in Pakistan which seems to be needing some white sugar to meet the demand.”
Tight refined sugar supplies will boost white sugar’s premium over raw after a period of depressed prices, he added.
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The Indian government in January permitted mills to ship as much as 1 million tons in the current season, easing restrictions that curbed overseas sales for more than a year. However the pace of shipments has been slow as millers anticipate higher prices in the international market.
World sugar prices need to stay above $530 dollars a ton to incentivize exports, said Gupta. “For 1 million tons exports to happen, the world market have to move up to price Indian sugar.” Prices
White sugar prices gained 1.5 per cent to $545.40 a ton in London. New York markets closed for US public holiday.
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Source : Business Standard
