India’s rice exports rise 30% in H1CY25, record harvest expected amid good monsoon prediction
India’s rice exports in January–June 2025 rose 30% year-on-year to 13.30 million tonnes, driven by removal of non-basmati export curbs, competitive pricing versus Thailand and Vietnam, and falling freight costs. Strong production, high buffer stocks, and robust demand from Africa, the Gulf, and ASEAN markets support further export growth.
India’s total rice exports in the first half of calendar 2025 (January-June) showed a considerable 30% y-o-y increase, as per data maintained with BigMint. Volumes touched 13.30 million tonnes (mnt) in H1CY25 against 10.20 mnt seen in the same period in 2024.
At a m-o-m level, volumes in January 2025 spurted a whopping 50% to around 2.8 mnt (1.8 mnt in January 2024), the highest in a single month in H1CY25.
Factors that boosted rice exports
The y-o-y rise in the rice exports in H1CY25 is largely attributed to a mixture of robust supply-side factors, changing demand patterns, and strategic positions in leading export markets.
Lifting of non-basmati export curb: From mid-2024, the export policy for non-basmati rice was freed from the prohibited clause clamped in July 2023. This ban was necessary to stabilise prices of non-basmati and also boost domestic supplies. As domestic production improved due to a comfortable supply trend within the country, these restrictions were progressively relaxed till March 2025.
Removal of this quantitative restriction also boosted export volumes from India.
“India being the biggest supplier of rice, this ban had destabilised global pricing. Now with resumption of exports in full swing, global prices have stabilised,” Dr Swain, National Vice-President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), informed BigMint during a podcast.
India’s largest market for basmati rice is the Gulf region, followed by the European Union. Plus, India caters to the diaspora in the US, Canada as well as Australia and New Zealand. Of late, the ASEAN is an emerging market too.
Africa is the largest overseas market for Indian non-basmati rice. Southeast Asian countries are also showing interest while South America is the new kid on the block.
Competitive pricing: India still sells rice at very competitive prices compared to other giant exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam. This makes Indian rice a desirable option in price-sensitive countries, particularly Africa and Asia.
For instance, in July 2025, in the 5% broken rice variety, Thailand’s was sold at $396/tonne – an almost 6% premium to India’s landed price of $374/t. Vietnam’s rice in this variety was priced at $385/t and Pakistan’s at $390/t.
Drop in freights supports exports: Freight costs have been softening and this is also contributing to the lower export prices as well as volumes. For instance, as per the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), freights dropped from a high of $6,000/40-ft equivalent unit (feu) on 11 July, 2024 to as low as $2,517/feu on 24 July, 2025.
The Containerized Freight Index, tracked by Trading Economics, traded flat at 1,592.59 points on July 29, 2025. Over the past month, the CFI price has fallen 14.45%, and is down 53.81% compared to the same time last year, according to sources.
Outlook:With good monsoon predictions and more acreage, India is expected to record high rice harvests in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. This will result in a huge surplus that can be diverted towards exports. India has incurred an all-time high of government buffer stocks, which surpass domestic needs. This large pool will enable further exposure to higher export volumes without compromising on the country’s food security aspects.
Africa is a big market for non-basmati because of its food security challenges. This restriction brought down total rice exports but on being lifted in September last year, helped volumes to pick up.
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Source : Big Mint
