India’s sugar output estimate cut to 28.3 million tonnes on lower cane yields
India’s sugar output for the 2025–26 season is now estimated at 28.3 million tonnes, down from the earlier 29.6 million tonnes forecast, due to weather-related yield losses in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. Lower production and potential ethanol diversion in Brazil could tighten global supplies and support international sugar prices in the coming months.
The All India Sugar Trade Association has lowered its own forecast on India’s sugar output to 28.3 million tonnes (mt) for the 2025-26 season (October-September), citing lower yields of sugarcane in key producing states. The downward revision within 35 days of the gap assumes significance, as the world market had the impression of bumper output from India.
Now that clarity is emerging on India’s exports and with an expectation of higher diversion towards ethanol in Brazil amid growing uncertainties over crude oil, global sugar prices may also move up from now on, experts said.
Output estimate cut
On January 28, AISTA released its first sugar estimate, pegging net output at 29.6 mt, up from 26.2 mt in the 2024-25 season.
Gross sugar production is expected at 31.5 mt, with 3.2 mt likely to be diverted for ethanol production, AISTA said in a statement.
Weather impact persists
The crop committee of AISTA said the season presented “extraordinary climatic challenges” across Maharashtra and neighbouring Karnataka, where continuous showers and extended cloudy weather disrupted sugarcane growth during crucial vegetative and maturation stages.
Excessive rainfall in October caused severe disruption in Maharashtra’s Marathwada region, leading to waterlogging, restricted field operations and crop stress, AISTA said. Early flowering also hit ratoon crops, resulting in productivity losses in several areas.
State-wise output fall
Maharashtra, the top sugar-producing state, is likely to produce 9.97 mt of sugar (down from 10.81 mt in the first estimate), though it remains above the 8.1 mt produced in 2024-25. Uttar Pradesh, the second-biggest producer, has seen its estimate cut to 9.1 mt from earlier 9.41 mt, and it is even lower than last year’s 9.3 mt. Strong demand for sugarcane from jaggery units reduced cane supply to mills, AISTA said. Karnataka’s output is now seen at 4.8 mt (down from 4.91 mt earlier), but is still above last year’s 4.3 mt.
Top producers share
Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka are the three top sugar producers, sharing over 80 per cent of the country’s total production. Industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association has also lowered its 2025-26 sugar output forecast to 29.29 mt.
While sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh has improved by about half a percentage point, yields remained a concern, AISTA said.
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Source : The Hindu Business line
