ISMA and NFCSF maintain sugar production estimate for now; further clarity soon
Maharashtra’s sugarcane crop faced heavy monsoon rains in 2025, affecting nearly 7 million hectares, including soybeans and sugarcane. ISMA maintains that crop conditions are largely satisfactory, with localized waterlogging in low-lying areas. The first advance sugar production estimate for 2025–26 (350 lakh tons) will be released in early November.
As the Monsoon 2025 draws the curtain, Maharashtra, the second largest sugarcane growing State in the country, is facing a problem of plenty. The monsoon rains have lashed the State, causing inundation in several districts and adversely impacting the standing crop.
In a statement, the Chief Minister, citing preliminary estimates by the state agriculture department, said that crops spread over 69.95 lakh acres across 30 districts have been damaged, including standing crops across nearly 6 million hectares of farmland in Maharashtra, largely comprising soybeans and sugarcane.
2025-26 crop estimate
The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), in its preliminary sugar production estimate for 2025-26 SS on 31st July, had said that the country is expected to have a good sugarcane crop. The all-India figure given by the Association was 349 lakh tons (before ethanol diversion). The expected sugar production in Maharashtra is 132.68 lakh tons (before diversion).
Considering the widespread rains and their significant impact on the standing sugarcane crop, ChiniMandi revisited the estimate and asked whether there is any need to review the expected sugar production for 2025-26 SS.
Deepak Ballani, DG of ISMA, said that the rainfall during the first week of October 2025 was below normal across Maharashtra and Karnataka, with sugarcane-growing regions receiving significantly less precipitation than usual, as per IMD.
“Additionally, the past few days of ample sunlight have resulted in favourable weather conditions, supporting good cane growth. Overall, the crop condition remains satisfactory, except for some low-lying pockets affected by localised waterlogging,” he said.
Ballani said that while the current outlook is positive, it is still too early to draw firm conclusions on the overall impact of weather on sugarcane availability in the current season, 2025-26.
“To obtain a clearer picture, ISMA team is conducting field surveys across major cane belts in both states. Additionally, satellite imagery will be procured in the 4th week of October 2025 to complement the ground assessment,” he added.
The Association is expected to release its 1st advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025–26 season in the 1st week of November 2025, based on the combined analysis of field observations, satellite data and other relevant parameters.
Clarity in 10 days
The apex body of Cooperative sugar mills in the country, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Mills Ltd, maintains the all-India sugar production estimate of 350 lakh tons for 2025-26.
Prakash Nainkavare, MD of NFCSF, said, “Retreating rains are still active in some parts of Maharashtra. Therefore, it’s difficult to assess. The new crushing season is not starting before 1st Nov. Hence, we are maintaining our all-India gross estimate at 350 LMTs”.
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Source : Chinimandi
