ISMA lowers sugar production forecast for 2024-25 amid upheaval caused by US tariff
The Indian Sugar Bio-Energy and Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has slashed its 2024–25 sugar production estimate to 254.97 LMT, down nearly 10 LMT from last month. Delayed crushing seasons, reduced demand for ethanol blending, and U.S. tariffs have hit the market. However, a positive monsoon outlook boosts hopes for higher output in 2025–26, especially in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
NEW DELHI: The Indian Sugar Bio-Energy and Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has significantly reduced its final forecast for sugar production in the sugar year 2024-25, compared to previous projections.
ISMA now estimates that total sugar production will be 254.97 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), which is a decrease of almost 10 LMT from last month’s projection. At the start of the sugar crushing season, the industry body had initially predicted around 280 LMT of sugar production. This higher estimate led the government to permit exports of 10 LMT.
This newspaper earlier reported that this year sugar output would be reduced by over 60 LMT.
The earlier estimation of reduced production, along with the government’s decision to allow sugar exports, has caused some concerns among policymakers. Additionally, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has resulted in turmoil in the global market and a crash in crude oil prices. This has reduced demand in the ethanol blending market, where sugar syrup is a key component.
Experts suggest that, given these recent developments, the decreasing sugar market prices may render Indian sugar uncompetitive in the international market.
Meanwhile, ISMA gave optimistic outlook for the 2025-26 Sugar season due to positive forecast of southwest monsoon by both Indian Meteorological Department and private weather agency Skymet.
Favourable monsoon forecast would encourage better sugarcane planting for the 2025–26 states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.
“A favorable agro-climatic environment, supporting a healthy sugarcane crop and robust production potential for the 2025–26 season. The crushing season is anticipated to begin as per schedule in October 2025, ensuring adequate supply position,” it said.
This year sugar season 2024-25 was off to a late start due to political as well as climatic reasons.
Due to election and polling dates, Maharashtra state government started the sugarcane crushing season late, i.e. after November 15 while the season in Karnataka and Gujarat also started somewhat late. In the northern states, due to retreat rains and the Diwali festival, the crushing season started in full swing after mid-November.
However, cooperative sugar body the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Limited (NFCSF), the country’s largest federation of cooperative sugar mills, has estimated around 18% less sugar would be produced compared to the previous year. Currently, NFCSF estimates 259 LMT of sugar production, as against 319 LMT of total sugar production last year.
Further, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) revised estimation, sugar output would be around 258 LMT with error of margin (+/-) 2% production.
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : The New Indian Express
