Japan’s 2025 rice crop outlook favorable, shortage likely to ease
Japan’s farm ministry expects rice output to recover in 2025, with production rising in 13 prefectures and stable in 29. Only four prefectures may see lower yields, signaling favorable harvest conditions. Cultivation area is projected to expand by 100,000 hectares, lifting brown rice output by 560,000 tons to 7.35 million tons, easing 2024’s shortfall.
Rice production in 13 of Japan’s 47 prefectures in 2025 is expected to exceed that of the previous year and remain mostly unchanged in 29 prefectures, an outlook from the farm ministry showed Friday, raising hopes that the country’s rice shortage will soon be resolved.
With just four prefectures projected to see lower rice yield per unit area than the previous year as of Aug. 15, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has concluded that overall harvest conditions are favorable.
Okinawa Prefecture was not included in the outlook as some of the figures from the region have yet to be tabulated.
Land for cultivation in 2025 is expected to expand by about 100,000 hectares compared with the previous year. Assuming regular crop conditions, the ministry forecasts that brown rice production will increase by 560,000 tons to around 7.35 million tons.
A significant shortfall was seen in 2024, when demand reached 7.11 million tons, while only 6.79 million tons of rice was produced. The rise has been mainly driven by reduced distribution volumes, due in part to heat damage and pest outbreaks, with some also attributing it to demand from booming inbound tourism.
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