Kazakhstan’s 2025-26 wheat output projected to decline as farmers opt for profitable oilseeds
Kazakhstan’s 2025-26 wheat output is forecast to drop to 15.5 MT as farmers shift to oilseeds and bad weather hurts yields and quality. Exports are seen falling to 8.6 MT, though new routes to Southeast Asia and niche markets like the US are growing, while China boosts demand for feed-grade wheat meal.
Kazakhstan’s wheat production is projected to contract in the 2025-26 marketing year, reaching 15.5 million tonnes, about 1 million tonnes lower than the previous season, according to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS attributes the decline to farmers continuing to shift acreage toward more profitable oilseeds, and the country grapples with challenging weather.
The update signals a tighter supply outlook for one of Central Asia’s key grain exporters at a time when regional markets remain sensitive to climatic and policy-driven disruptions.
Below-average temperatures and sustained wet conditions affected fields during critical harvest windows, raising concerns over crop quality and potential downgrades.
“Depending on the extent of the damage, the amount of available feed grade wheat may increase,” the FAS noted, adding that “the foul weather has also delayed the harvest in some areas.”
Such delays can increase the risk of sprouting and further compromise milling quality, a key concern for Kazakhstan’s flour and grain exporters.
Reflecting the tighter balance sheet, Kazakhstan’s wheat exports are forecast to fall to 8.6 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes year-on-year.
Despite the expected decline, the country is exploring new trade routes and markets. Between May and September, Kazakhstan exported 17,000 tonnes of wheat to Vietnam through an uninterrupted container corridor.
According to the FAS, the use of this logistical model is set to expand, backed by ongoing transport subsidies, boosting Kazakhstan’s wheat exports to Southeast Asia.
Kazakhstan has also made new inroads into high-value markets. In September, local media reported the first-ever shipment of flour to the United States.
QazTrade, a government-affiliated export promotion agency, confirmed that 50 tonnes of wheat flour had arrived in New York and is now being sold on Amazon. This development highlights Kazakhstan’s push to diversify export destinations and capitalize on premium retail channels.
However, traditional trade flows continue to shift. Wheat exports to China in 2024-25 dropped sharply after Beijing reportedly halted duty-free access for shipments into its bonded and economic zones.
At the same time, Chinese demand for feed meal made from wheat and barley has surged due to competitive pricing and favorable duty-free treatment. The typical feed meal blend consists of about 80% feed-grade or non-class wheat and 20% barley and other grains.
This rising demand has spurred rapid industrial expansion in Kazakhstan. The FAS reports a significant increase in the number of feed meal production facilities, with Kazakh and Chinese investors opening new factories almost monthly.
As of July 2025, 76 wheat feed meal firms and 67 barley feed meal companies were officially registered to export to China.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
