Kenya Sees Increase in Maize Surplus
Kenya’s maize surplus for the 2023–24 marketing season is projected to exceed 28.3 million 50kg bags, according to the State Department for Agriculture. This increase is due to favorable growing conditions, including extensive rains and cooler temperatures, which have boosted yields. With a carry-over of 35.2 million bags and a near-record crop this year, domestic supplies are robust, leading to reduced import demand and lower retail prices for staple foods.
Surplus stocks of Kenyan maize may increase by more than 28.3 million 50kg bags during the 2023–24 marketing season, data from the State Department for Agriculture estimated in a summary of the agency’s food‐situation report, which was released this week.
The growing surplus was attributed to a combination of bumper production — the favourable growing conditions across the country, with extensive rains restoring topsoil moisture and slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures aiding its vegetative growth and boosting yields.
The carry-over into the new marketing season, which began in June, was 35.2 million bags. The carry-over from September this year may amount to at least double that figure, according to the Food and Nutrition Security Report, because of this year’s near‐record crop and the prospects of a sharp drop in exports.
“The improved maize crop production in 2023 and improved local supplies of most food staples continue to impact the importation of most basic staples with a general declining trend since January 2024,” the report says.
Already, the country has begun to see a declining import demand for the crop from 516,151 (50kg) bags in May to 389,778 bags compared to 633,555 imported in March because of ample yields as low altitude counties of Bomet, Narok, Nyamira and parts of Migori are set to start harvesting about 20.5 million bags planted early in January.
The report said that the abundance of maize has driven the price so low and has affected the retail prices of common pulses like beans and peas, erasing any fear of an imminent food crisis in most parts of the country.
“The decline in prices is attributed to good maize production in 2023. By the end of the month of June, the average retail price of a two-kilo packet of unga was Sh129 in supermarkets in Nairobi.
“The prices of basic staples, especially cereals and pulses, continued to decline in the month of June as most of the farmers who had been keeping some food stocks on speculation for better prices (compared to last year) decided to release the stocks into the market,” the report outlines.
As of June, the wholesale price for a 90kg bag of maize dropped from Sh3,450 in May to Sh3,250 and is forecasted to decline further, especially after the harvesting period.
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