Kenya : Sugar prices to remain stable despite shortfall in production – board
Kenya’s Sugar Board says sugar prices will remain stable despite a 25% production drop in 2025 to 613,000 tonnes. Supply is supported by stabilisation measures and reforms. Factory rehabilitation, weather challenges and cane maturity delays made 2025 a transition year, with recovery expected from late 2026.
Sugar prices are expected to remain stable despite a shortfall in national production, the Kenya Sugar Board has assured.
Recent indicators from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) had raised concerns over possible price hikes in supermarkets and shops across the country.
But Kenya Sugar Board CEO Jude Chesire said there is no cause for alarm and urged consumers to continue purchasing sugar with confidence.
“Kenya’s sugar supply remains secure despite rising demand driven by population growth, expanding urban consumption and increased industrial use, even as the country navigates a challenging production cycle that began in 2025 and has extended into early 2026,” he said.
According to board data, national sugar production in 2025 stood at 613,000 tonnes—enough to meet just 61 per cent of the annual demand of 1.2 million tonnes. This marked a 25 per cent decline from the historic 815,000 tonnes recorded in 2024, as the industry went through structural reforms.
In Nairobi’s outskirts, retailers report stable shelf prices. In Ruai, shopkeeper Joseph Kingori said a kilo of sugar currently sells at about Sh160, this is a drop of roughly Sh20 over the past two months.
On the production, farmers continue to face weather-induced uncertainties. Robert Okoth, a sugarcane farmer from Mulo village, Awendo in Migori county, has been a farmer for close to 20 years. He said he has expanded his acreage from five to 10 acres, most of it leased, but climatic shocks remain a big challenge affecting his yields.
“The weather is our biggest challenge right now,” he said. “You prepare the land and invest in the crop, but poor rainfall affects yields even when you do everything right.”
For others, better prices are luring them back into cane farming. Farmer Samuel Wekesa form Mumias East in Kakamega county said many growers had abandoned the crop at a time when returns were too low.
“I stopped growing cane because it simply wasn’t profitable. The cost of production was high and the prices were low,” he said. “But with reforms and cane prices rising to around Sh5,500 per tonne, I’m planning to return to cane farming this year.”
Chesire said the recent production slump was driven by a mix of factors rather than a single disruption.
“The reduced output was due to a combination of weather stress, deliberate protection of future cane and structural reforms aimed at securing the long-term survival of the industry,” he said.
Dry conditions that set in across key sugar zones in late 2025 and persisted into early 2026 further compounded the situation.
The CEO said much of the mature cane was harvested in 2024, leading to high production that year. In 2025, a significant portion of cane was still in developmental stages and could not be harvested.
Chesire noted that this necessitated the temporary closure of seven sugar factories in Lower and Upper Western regions to allow the cane to reach optimal maturity, ensuring higher sucrose content and protecting farmers’ future earnings.
Another factor that is attributed to the reduction is private sector mill transitions and rehabilitation, where four state-owned sugar factories were closed initially to facilitate leasing to private investors.
“Following the handover, these factories underwent extensive renovations and rehabilitation worth Sh12.5 billion, resulting in approximately nine months of reduced milling capacity,” he said.
“Kwale Sugar also remained non-operational during 2025. These measures, though temporarily limiting output, were essential to modernise the industry and secure reliable production for the future.”
Weather conditions affecting late 2025 and early 2026 is also another contributing factor where dry spells in key growing zones slowed cane development, reduced tonnage per hectare and affected factory throughput. While this added temporary pressure on production, the reforms and recovery programmes are designed to ensure that such weather-related impacts are mitigated in future seasons.
He added that as a result, 2025 became a transition year, in which production fell so that the foundation for higher, more reliable output could be rebuilt. Kenya’s sugar demand continues to grow annually, driven by population growth and consumption trends. Ensuring stability of supply is therefore a national priority.
The government and industry regulators, he said, have put in place market stabilisation measures to ensure sugar remains available, prices remain predictable, and consumers are protected from artificial shortages and speculation, even as production recovers and dry conditions persist in early 2026.
“Farmers remain at the centre of the recovery strategy,” Chesire said.
He said cane maturity timelines are being respected and the Sh1.2 billion Sugar Development Levy funded programmes are set to accelerate cane development in 2026, including expansion of cultivation areas and introduction of early-maturing varieties from the Sugar Research Institute.
“Combined with mill rehabilitation, these measures are improving payment reliability, boosting yields and setting the stage for significantly higher production. Millions of tonnes of cane are already in the ground supported by millers, with harvesting and milling projected to resume strongly from October–November 2026, marking the beginning of a sustained rebound in domestic production,” he said.
He further noted that Kenya’s sugar sector is being rebuilt to match the country’s growing population and rising demand, not just for today, but for the next generation.
“The challenges of late 2025 and early 2026 are real, but they are temporary. The reforms are permanent. The assurance to Kenyans is clear, sugar supply will remain stable as the industry completes its recovery,” he said.
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Source : The Star
