Kharif Outlook. India’s rice production may not increase despite higher area, as floods wreak havoc
India’s kharif rice output for 2025 is projected at 120–121 mt, slightly below last year’s 121.85 mt. Excessive rain, floods, and August’s urea shortage have impacted yields. Punjab may see a 20% drop, while Uttar Pradesh’s production could exceed 21 mt due to expanded acreage and favorable rainfall.
India’s kharif rice production this year will likely drop to around 120-121 million tonnes (mt) from 121.85 mt last year as excessive rain and floods have affected the yield in some States. The shortage of urea, particularly in August is also likely to lower the yield, though marginally.
According to an analysis of statewise acreage data and rainfall pattern, experts said the situation at the macro level is similar to last kharif season and crop conditions are also good, so far. “One may expect a similar yield as in 2024 at national level, but Punjab will definitely have at least 20 per cent lower output,” said a senior rice breeder.
The area under the kharif paddy increased about 5 per cent as of September 5 from the year-ago period, and it crossed the 2025 season’s total acreage of 434.13 lakh hectare (lh). The rise is the highest (13.5 per cent) in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest producing State of rice in the kharif season. Since the rainfall in rice-growing districts has been good so far, and most of the area is irrigated, rice production in Uttar Pradesh may be over 21 mt this year, said S.K. Singh, an agricultural scientist. In kharif 2024, the production in Uttar Pradesh was 20.24 mt.
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Source : The Hindu Business line
