Leading global analysts expect the global sugar surplus to remain
At the 2026 Dubai Sugar Conference, analysts signaled a global sugar surplus for 2026/27. Czarnikow projects a 3.4 million ton surplus, while Green Pool estimates 156,000 tons. Strong crops in Brazil, India and Thailand have pressured prices to 5.5-year lows.
During the Dubai Sugar Conference in February 2026, leading global analysts, having revised their forecasts, reported on the expected surplus of the world sugar balance in the new MY 2026/27.
In particular, international analysts Czarnikow expect a surplus of the world sugar balance in the new MY 2026/27, which will amount to 3.4 million tons, compared to 8.3 million tons in the current 2025/26 season. At the same time, Green Pool analysts announced an expected surplus of the world sugar balance in the 2026/27 season at the level of 156 thousand tons, compared to 2.74 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Favorable harvest forecasts in Brazil, India and Thailand were the main reason that influenced the preservation of the forecasted estimate of the surplus of the world sugar balance in the 2026/27 season.
Estimates of international analysts put pressure on world sugar prices, which this week reached their lowest values in the last 5.5 years, decreasing, compared to last year’s level, by 29% for raw sugar and by 26% for bulk sugar. Preservation of the estimate of the surplus of the world sugar balance in the new season
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
